ForsythSnow
Moderator
As is the NAO. The PNA is also going to head back to neutral, but I don't know if we want to be seeing this now. However, the atmosphere is different this year, so perhaps we could be in for some good cold later this month.
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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Yeah I noticed that too but with the NAO I thought it was tougher to predict in the long range. I think someone mentioned how the AO behavior in November can be an indicator down the road as well.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
As is the NAO. The PNA is also going to head back to neutral, but I don't know if we want to be seeing this now. However, the atmosphere is different this year, so perhaps we could be in for some good cold later this month.
olhausen
Member
That would be nice if we could get lake effect snow down south!
Usmeagle2005
Member
Yea, just a weird thought I had, what if we had Great Lake just north of us, what would all of our yearly averages be? How much of difference would it make? Instead of my normal 3-4 inch yearly average in north miss, would it be 30-40? Just because every time a good cold front or cold air blew over wouldn’t it create snow bands? What made me think about it, was last year in Madison miss, they had a snow event off the reservoir there. And I was like what if you had a lake about the size and of Tennessee to the north, how would that change things?
From MDA wx this morning, some food for thought for this winter regarding the amplitude of the MJO:
"Northern Hemispheric and tropical sea surface temperatures feature a similar spatial spread of anomalies as observed a year ago, so we ask if there is anything we learned about the MJO last year that can be applied again for the upcoming winter. One notable factor from last winter was just how strong the MJO was, especially in February when the MJO had an average amplitude of 2.3 in a month which was record warmest by a large 47 GWHDDs. A large part of the second half of January also featured a strong MJO signal and periods of record warmth. Oppositely, colder periods in mid-December and early to mid-January were observed with a weak MJO signal. Taking those considerations, we test whether other years with a similar sea surface temperature regime as is current are consistent in this regard. The maps below highlight the data, which only considers the amplitude of the MJO and not the phase in which the signal resides. These suggest a similar theme with a weaker signal allowing for colder air into the Eastern Two-Thirds while the strong MJO dates were broadly warmer. This is a consideration to be had as we go forward, on top of the phase that the signal resides."
So, this analysis suggests a weaker MJO would likely average out to be colder this winter than a stronger MJO in the SE US and in the E 1/2 of the US in general since there is a somewhat similar SST pattern vs last winter. Independently I several years ago did statistical research that I later presented here suggesting that lower amp MJO (inside circle) in January for all years averaged out since the mid 1970s was significantly colder than MJO outside the circle in the SE US. So, I'd have to agree with this for January at least. Let's see if January plays out this way. I will caution folks that MDA's as well as my research were based on an average of a good number of winters and that any one winter could come out far differently from the average. These kinds of studies don't tell us what will happen but rather they suggest odds.
"Northern Hemispheric and tropical sea surface temperatures feature a similar spatial spread of anomalies as observed a year ago, so we ask if there is anything we learned about the MJO last year that can be applied again for the upcoming winter. One notable factor from last winter was just how strong the MJO was, especially in February when the MJO had an average amplitude of 2.3 in a month which was record warmest by a large 47 GWHDDs. A large part of the second half of January also featured a strong MJO signal and periods of record warmth. Oppositely, colder periods in mid-December and early to mid-January were observed with a weak MJO signal. Taking those considerations, we test whether other years with a similar sea surface temperature regime as is current are consistent in this regard. The maps below highlight the data, which only considers the amplitude of the MJO and not the phase in which the signal resides. These suggest a similar theme with a weaker signal allowing for colder air into the Eastern Two-Thirds while the strong MJO dates were broadly warmer. This is a consideration to be had as we go forward, on top of the phase that the signal resides."
So, this analysis suggests a weaker MJO would likely average out to be colder this winter than a stronger MJO in the SE US and in the E 1/2 of the US in general since there is a somewhat similar SST pattern vs last winter. Independently I several years ago did statistical research that I later presented here suggesting that lower amp MJO (inside circle) in January for all years averaged out since the mid 1970s was significantly colder than MJO outside the circle in the SE US. So, I'd have to agree with this for January at least. Let's see if January plays out this way. I will caution folks that MDA's as well as my research were based on an average of a good number of winters and that any one winter could come out far differently from the average. These kinds of studies don't tell us what will happen but rather they suggest odds.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Really encouraging to see this NINA remain decidedly east based this late in the fall, definitely won't hurt us this year and could assist in generating high latitude blocking especially in the early-mid portions of the winter
The human Dr. No is saying maybe.... I'll take that and run with it like I stole it!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
And it looks like that may be showing up in the modeling already. I definitely am glad we are seeing cold now, but I as well as many would enjoy a cold December and January for the first time in years. Maybe we can get a good snowstorm or two in there as well.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If it does turn out cold in both months, the last time it really was.....may have been 10/11? I feel like it was decently cold in January a few years ago but it wasn't with both.
whatalife
Moderator
The human Dr. No is saying maybe.... I'll take that and run with it like I stole it!
HAHA!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well, all this aligns with my voodoo dada feelings that we're in for a
'Gradient Winter' in the Southeast Us. Memphis, congrats.
'Gradient Winter' in the Southeast Us. Memphis, congrats.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Hopefully having the first freeze in November is a good sign that we'll actually get shots of cold here this winter. I think we are way overdue for a big winter storm. It's been a long time since we've had a storm with more than a couple of inches of snow. I think we'll get a good one with 6 inches or more this winter.
NWMSGuy
Member
Anyone have any ideas/guesses as to when we could possibly start seeing Winter storms in the south this season if at all? Good bit of talk about cold in relation to teleconnections but what would it take in the teleconnections to have cold and an active southern storm track?
pcbjr
Member
Ahhh... love the optimistic plural "storms"... and the realistic "if at all" ...
IMHO -- it is, as always, a crap shoot, but here's guessing late December/early January, if at all ...
NWMSGuy
Member
Haha. Always good to be “carefully” optimistic. Late December early January would be a great time! I’m sure I’ve been through one and don’t remember but would love to see a White Christmas. So much going on in the world I just see a White Christmas as icing on the cake for a perfect and peaceful Christmas/Holiday season. Imagine if most of us on the board could see one, we would be satisfied with this Winter.Ahhh... love the optimistic plural "storms"... and the realistic "if at all" ...
IMHO -- it is, as always, a crap shoot, but here's guessing late December/early January, if at all ...
Jon
Member
:weenie: ....The 00z Euro control has an epic Christmas snowstorm for the SE/MA/NE..this probably goes in banter but I'm so glad we're seeing fantasy storms this early, even if it's the control. I recall last year we were begging for fantasy snowstorms all year.
cd2play
Member
pcbjr
Member
This post is for educational and information purposes; it is not an endorsement of any kind.
DT's final winter forecast is out; it is long, detailed, and with some points worth considering (although his customary editorializing is obviously there).
The forecast is not what most would want or hope to see (your Curmudgeon here included).
Anyway, for perusal, digestion and reflection ...
https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf
DT's final winter forecast is out; it is long, detailed, and with some points worth considering (although his customary editorializing is obviously there).
The forecast is not what most would want or hope to see (your Curmudgeon here included).
Anyway, for perusal, digestion and reflection ...
https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf
Thanks for posting, Phil. Yeah, the bad thing for cold lovers is that he's averaging warmer than normal for the SE US overall as well as for Brent in TX each of D, J, and F. However, the really good news is that he has in Jan near normal for the upper part of the SE (especially Carolinas/TN) and only marginally above normal for most other active posters, which would be MUCH, MUCH colder than the ridiculously warm last Jan for just about everyone. Also, in Feb he is predicting anywhere from marginally above more northern SE to more solid above further south, but even that would not be nearly as warm as the very warm Feb of 2017. Note he has no much above normal anywhere in southern US for any month whereas last J and F were just that.
In summary, though above normal for DJF overall, it isn't much above/gives the SE some semblance of a winter very much unlike last winter overall (other than the one major storm of Jan 6-7 of 2017 for especially parts of NC) and is actually pretty cold looking (normal or colder) in the last halves of D & J, especially J. I'd take that and run in La Niña.
To his credit, he puts out numerous maps and explains his thinking well. He clearly put a ton of time into this. The biggest negative is that he criticizes the consensus forecasts for last winter as being way too cold but doesn't mention that he, himself, was included in that way too cold group and busted very badly with the others that were pretty cold.
Edit: another negative imo is that he doesn't put out a combined DJF map.
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