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Pattern February Discussion

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Shawn said:
map_btd.png


Looks like it was a weak low/late bloomer.

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The bottom surface map doesn't match with regard to dates as it says 1948 instead of what should be 1958.
 
GaWx said:
The bottom surface map doesn't match with regard to dates as it says 1948 instead of what should be 1958.
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Thanks, I didn't catch that and was a bit off in the look.. let me get that fixed.

Original post fixed.
 
Shawn said:
Thanks, I didn't catch that and was a bit off in the look.. let me get that fixed.

Original post fixed.
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YW. Yeah, I had that one actually cross central FL as a very weak low before the map you displayed. A very interesting thing is that the top 6 Columbia snows of your list all had a low cross way down south in the general vicinity of CENTRAL FL (1973 is more north-central). The next four after that (#7 through #10) all crossed further north over the NORTHERN FL peninsula. So, your best for a real blockbuster seems to be a central FL crossover and the low doing that can be quite weak.
 
GaWx said:
YW. Yeah, I had that one actually cross central FL as a very weak low before the map you displayed. A very interesting thing is that the top 6 Columbia snows of your list all had a low cross way down south in the general vicinity of CENTRAL FL (1973 is more north-central). The next four after that (#7 through #10) all crossed further north over the NORTHERN FL peninsula. So, your best for a real blockbuster seems to be a central FL crossover and the low doing that can be quite weak.
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Since a low crossing central fl is best for Columbia to get big snows, wouldn't the same be true for Atlanta ? Atlanta is slightly South in latitude compared to Columbia so I imagine the low would need to be just as far south for Atlanta to get big snows ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Since a low crossing central fl is best for Columbia to get big snows, wouldn't the same be true for Atlanta ? Atlanta is slightly South in latitude compared to Columbia so I imagine the low would need to be just as far south for Atlanta to get big snows ?
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North and central FL have both given ATL major snows a number of times. North has done it a good bit more often than central FL at ATL, which can be partially attributed to central FL crossovers being quite a bit less frequent than north FL crossovers. Also, with ATL being 200 miles west of Columbia's longitude and considering that most of these lows travel at least a little north of due east, I can see where some N FL crossovers would be cold enough for ATL but not cold enough for Columbia to get as much snow. Also, a central crossover will sometimes be too far south for ATL to get nearly as much as Columbia or even anything (examples 2/1973 nothing for ATL while huge for Columbia; 2/1914 gave Columbia ~5 times as much snow as ATL).
 
euro control is all in day 12 for Arkansas, Tennessee and NC

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the eps is very active days 9-15. Lots of good looks

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Weenie euro control two huge SE winter storms day 9-15

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We are in trouble if we are picking the Control over the mean for our chances. :(
 
Flo said:
I was hoping models were hinting at something.

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They are if you like heat! Or if you believe the GEFS
 
Well one thing I know for sure with how the models have gone lately (and by lately I mean the last few years) is we're going to have to wait a while longer before finding out on February. They don't usually show fantasy storms anymore, when a storm usually shows it's likely going to stick, with a few tweaks.
 
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