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Misc August Auguring

JHS said:
That would be nice, but I don't see it happening. It's going to be rainless where I am until something really shakes the pattern up. Maybe a 600dm closed ridge centered over the lower Mississippi river valley with 105-110+ temps would shake things up. At least there would probably be decent shots at mcs activity over the Carolinas with that kind of setup.
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Nothing is impossible -

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Storm5 said:
No extreme heat in sight . I'm In fact many locations will see normal to below to start August

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No rain in sight either! :(
 
even out here its looking like August will start below normal... anytime its below 95 here this time of year its a win

Some hints even of 80s or rain and 70s on the Euro :eek: Dallas can easily not even see 70s at night this time of year. I'm going on vacation to Seattle next week and it might be flipping warmer there lmao

Really think the worst of summer is about to be behind us here for sure
 
Evidence is starting to mount that we'll see a tropical cyclone outbreak outbreak in the Atlantic Ocean by the 2nd week of August. Increasingly favorable climatology featuring a rapid ramp up in activity at this time of the year, persistence (favorable seasonal bgd esp in eastern mdr), intraseasonal forcing with what's probably one of if not the strongest cckw I've ever seen enter the Atlantic, and the increasingly frequent cP air masses invading the eastern-central US that will help focus low level convergence to the southeast over the adjacent Atlantic, there's definitely a lot support for a surge in activity starting in about 1-2 weeks. I feel pretty good about this considering that the Atlantic has produced a tc after every cckw that's passed over the basin in worse climo...

Yeah, this CCKW really means business. Filtered VP200 anomalies are exceeding 3.5 sigma, that's absolutely nuts, I don't see how we come away with at least 2-3 TCs directly off the passage of this CCKW going into week 2 or so, never mind the super amplified AEW train that's liable to follow after it's passage over Africa...
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