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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

I've never really had a good feel for any correlation between the QBO and SE winter temperatures because there are so many ways to look at the QBO magnitude, sign, and pattern that it can make for very small sample sizes. However, after reading DT's winter outlook, I just decided to analyze similar QBO autumns (back to 1948) to 2017. These are the most similar in regard to sign/magnitude and the magnitude is still slowly rising as of Oct. using this link:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

1956-7, 1958-9, 1962-3, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2009-10

I'm throwing out these because they're El Nino winters: 1958-9. 1965-6, 1972-3, and 2009-10.

That leaves these 4, which are all between neutral and weak La Nina: 1956-7, 1962-3, 1989-90, 2000-01

These 4 had the following during winter in the SE US:

Dec: 3 of the 4 very cold; other one (1956) very warm
Jan: varies (2 warm; 2 cold)
Feb: 3 of the 4 very warm, the other one very cold (1963)

Based on the above, alone, for the SE, there is a rather strong signal for a very cold Dec., a hard to predict Jan., and a very warm Feb.

Now looking more closely at these 4 analogs, the very best QBO analog patterns are 1962-3 and 2000-01 because those two shifted from +QBO to -QBO the prior spring, similar to 2017, after a typical 1 year+.+QBO period. In contrast, 1956-7 first shifted into -QBO back in the prior Jan (several months earlier) and 1989-90 first shifted into -QBO way back in May of 1988. So, that is why those not as good 2 analogs' then current -QBO shifted back to +QBO by the following spring whereas 1962-3 and 2000-01 didn't shift back to +QBO until the subsequent fall or winter. Looking at 2017's QBO pattern, it, too, would likely not go back to +QBO until at least the fall of 2018. (This is the problem with using QBO. To get something really similar, you have to eliminate so many potential analogs, thus leaving one with a very small sample....but I digress. And I'm not even considering the potential effect of GW to throw the older analogs off.)

So, we're now left with the very best 2 QBO analogs: 1962-3 and 2000-01. They both had a very cold Dec. This is more evidence that especially if the first part of Dec actually ends up not cold as the models are saying, to look out for the potential of a VERY cold middle and end of Dec. and possibly into early Jan. in the SE. That is the strongest signal from these 2 analogs fwiw with even Jan cool to cold for both of these analogs. Feb. was very warm for one and very cold for the other...so no signal there.

Now, let's look at the -AO in Nov. Like 2017 is about to do, 1962 and 2000, in addition to being the very best QBO analogs with similar ENSO, each went sub -3 in Nov. whereas 1956 and 1989 did not. So, that's another reason to use 1962-3 and 2000-01 over 1956-7 and 1989-90.

The last thing I'll say about these analogs is that 2000-01 was a weak La Nina while 1962-3 was cold neutral. being that I feel we're most likely going to end up with a weak La Nina, I'd say that the very best analog is 2000-01. 2000-01 had a very cold SE Dec. (Aside: 3" of SN KATL, the most in Dec. since way back in 1917!), a cold first half of Jan., a mild 2nd half of Jan. and a mild Feb. DJF averaged ~1.5 colder than normal at KATL thanks to that cold Dec-1st half of Jan.

*****For the fun of it since I just put a decent amount of this time into it, I've just decided to make a winter forecast for the SE US based on the above analysis:

a near normal first half of Dec.
(in deference to the current not cold early Dec. model runs and likely temporary warmer change from the recent cool domination), a mainly cold Dec. 16 through Jan 15th, and a mainly mild Jan 16th through Feb 28th. DJF would come out within 2 of normal up or down for most of the SE...so call it near normal DJF (a soooooo much better winter than the last one temperaturewise). I'm still not touching overall wintry precip with a 10 foot pole, at least not right now, though I will go ahead and say that the best shot at a widespread significant SE winter storm would be Dec. 16th through Jan 15th based on my projection of cold then with 12/25-1/15 the most favored as per the longterm climo of few winter storms before Christmas.
 
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I've never really had a good feel for any correlation between the QBO and SE winter temperatures because there are so many ways to look at the QBO magnitude, sign, and pattern that it can make for very small sample sizes. However, after reading DT's winter outlook, I just decided to analyze similar QBO autumns (back to 1948) to 2017. These are the most similar in regard to sign/magnitude and are still slowly rising as of Oct. using this link:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

1956-7, 1958-9, 1962-3, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2009-10

I'm throwing out these because they're El Nino winters: 1958-9. 1965-6, 1972-3, and 2009-10.

That leaves these 4, which are all between neutral and weak La Nina: 1956-7, 1962-3, 1989-90, 2000-01

These 4 had the following during winter in the SE US:

Dec: 3 of the 4 very cold; other one (1956) very warm
Jan: varies (2 warm; 2 cold)
Feb: 3 of the 4 very warm, the other one very cold (1963)

Based on the above, alone, for the SE, there is a rather strong signal for a very cold Dec., a hard to predict Jan., and a very warm Feb.

Now looking more closely at these 4 analogs, the very best QBO analog patterns are 1962-3 and 2000-01 because those two shifted from +QBO to -QBO the prior spring, similar to 2017, after a typical 1 year+.+QBO period. In contrast, 1956-7 first shifted into -QBO back in the prior Jan (several months earlier) and 1989-90 first shifted into -QBO way back in May of 1988. So, that is why those not as good 2 analogs' then current -QBO shifted back to +QBO by the following spring whereas 1962-3 and 2000-01 didn't shift back to +QBO until the subsequent fall or winter. Looking at 2017's QBO pattern, it, too, would likely not go back to +QBO until at least the fall of 2018. (This is the problem with using QBO. To get something really similar, you have to eliminate so many potential analogs, thus leaving one with a very small sample....but I digress. And we're not even considering the potential effect of GW to throw the older analogs off)

So, we're now left with the very best 2 QBO analogs: 1962-3 and 2000-01. They both had a very cold Dec. This is more evidence that especially if the first part of Dec actually ends up not cold as the models are saying, to look out for the potential of a VERY cold middle and end of Dec. and possibly into early Jan. in the SE. That is the strongest signal from these 2 analogs fwiw with even Jan cool to cold for both of these analogs. Feb. was very warm for one and very cold for the other...so no signal there.

Now, let's look at the -AO in Nov. Like 2017 is about to do, 1962 and 2000, in addition to being the very best QBO analogs with similar ENSO, each went sub -3 in Nov. whereas 1956 and 1989 did not. So, that's another reason to use 1962-3 and 2000-01 over 1956-7 and 1989-90.

The last thing I'll say is that 2000-01 was a weak La Nina while 1962-3 was cold neutral. being that I feel we're most likely going to end up with a weak La Nina, I'd say that the very best analog is 2000-01. 2000-01 had a very cold SE Dec. (Aside: 3" of SN KATL, the most in Dec. since way back in 1917!), a cold first half of Jan., a mild 2nd half of Jan. and a mild Feb. DJF averaged ~1.5 colder than normal thanks to that cold Dec-1st half of Jan.

*****For the fun of it since I just put a decent amount of this time into it, I've just decided to make a winter forecast for the SE US based on the above analysis:

a near normal first half of Dec. a mainly cold Dec. 16 through Jan 15th, and a mainly mild Jan 16th through Feb 28th. DJF would come out within 2 of normal up or down for most of the SE...so call it near normal DJF a soooooo much better winter than the last one temperaturewise. I'm still not touching overall wintry precip with a 10 foot pole, at least not right now, though I will go ahead and say that the best shot at a widespread significant SE winter storm would be Dec. 16th through Jan 15th based on my projection of cold then with 12/25-1/15 the most favored as per the longterm climo of few winter storms before Christmas.
Larry,
Good!
We all look at the pool table and line our shots. Some folks may disagree with your analysis, but humbly I for one truly appreciate the thought and effort.
Here's hoping you are spot on - until late Jan!
Then we'll need an 1899 surprise (gotta happen again sometime ... ;))
In any event, thanks so much for the time, thought and effort!
Best!
Phil
 
I've never really had a good feel for any correlation between the QBO and SE winter temperatures because there are so many ways to look at the QBO magnitude, sign, and pattern that it can make for very small sample sizes. However, after reading DT's winter outlook, I just decided to analyze similar QBO autumns (back to 1948) to 2017. These are the most similar in regard to sign/magnitude and are still slowly rising as of Oct. using this link:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

1956-7, 1958-9, 1962-3, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2009-10

I'm throwing out these because they're El Nino winters: 1958-9. 1965-6, 1972-3, and 2009-10.

That leaves these 4, which are all between neutral and weak La Nina: 1956-7, 1962-3, 1989-90, 2000-01

These 4 had the following during winter in the SE US:

Dec: 3 of the 4 very cold; other one (1956) very warm
Jan: varies (2 warm; 2 cold)
Feb: 3 of the 4 very warm, the other one very cold (1963)

Based on the above, alone, for the SE, there is a rather strong signal for a very cold Dec., a hard to predict Jan., and a very warm Feb.

Now looking more closely at these 4 analogs, the very best QBO analog patterns are 1962-3 and 2000-01 because those two shifted from +QBO to -QBO the prior spring, similar to 2017, after a typical 1 year+.+QBO period. In contrast, 1956-7 first shifted into -QBO back in the prior Jan (several months earlier) and 1989-90 first shifted into -QBO way back in May of 1988. So, that is why those not as good 2 analogs' then current -QBO shifted back to +QBO by the following spring whereas 1962-3 and 2000-01 didn't shift back to +QBO until the subsequent fall or winter. Looking at 2017's QBO pattern, it, too, would likely not go back to +QBO until at least the fall of 2018. (This is the problem with using QBO. To get something really similar, you have to eliminate so many potential analogs, thus leaving one with a very small sample....but I digress. And I'm not even considering the potential effect of GW to throw the older analogs off.)

So, we're now left with the very best 2 QBO analogs: 1962-3 and 2000-01. They both had a very cold Dec. This is more evidence that especially if the first part of Dec actually ends up not cold as the models are saying, to look out for the potential of a VERY cold middle and end of Dec. and possibly into early Jan. in the SE. That is the strongest signal from these 2 analogs fwiw with even Jan cool to cold for both of these analogs. Feb. was very warm for one and very cold for the other...so no signal there.

Now, let's look at the -AO in Nov. Like 2017 is about to do, 1962 and 2000, in addition to being the very best QBO analogs with similar ENSO, each went sub -3 in Nov. whereas 1956 and 1989 did not. So, that's another reason to use 1962-3 and 2000-01 over 1956-7 and 1989-90.

The last thing I'll say about these analogs is that 2000-01 was a weak La Nina while 1962-3 was cold neutral. being that I feel we're most likely going to end up with a weak La Nina, I'd say that the very best analog is 2000-01. 2000-01 had a very cold SE Dec. (Aside: 3" of SN KATL, the most in Dec. since way back in 1917!), a cold first half of Jan., a mild 2nd half of Jan. and a mild Feb. DJF averaged ~1.5 colder than normal at KATL thanks to that cold Dec-1st half of Jan.

*****For the fun of it since I just put a decent amount of this time into it, I've just decided to make a winter forecast for the SE US based on the above analysis:

a near normal first half of Dec.
(in deference to the current not cold early Dec. model runs and likely temporary warmer change from the recent cool domination), a mainly cold Dec. 16 through Jan 15th, and a mainly mild Jan 16th through Feb 28th. DJF would come out within 2 of normal up or down for most of the SE...so call it near normal DJF (a soooooo much better winter than the last one temperaturewise). I'm still not touching overall wintry precip with a 10 foot pole, at least not right now, though I will go ahead and say that the best shot at a widespread significant SE winter storm would be Dec. 16th through Jan 15th based on my projection of cold then with 12/25-1/15 the most favored as per the longterm climo of few winter storms before Christmas.
Larry your research and analysis is 2nd to none, outstanding work and here's to hoping you are spot on! Who knows we may just squeeze a white Christmas out of this mess

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
I've never really had a good feel for any correlation between the QBO and SE winter temperatures because there are so many ways to look at the QBO magnitude, sign, and pattern that it can make for very small sample sizes. However, after reading DT's winter outlook, I just decided to analyze similar QBO autumns (back to 1948) to 2017. These are the most similar in regard to sign/magnitude and the magnitude is still slowly rising as of Oct. using this link:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

1956-7, 1958-9, 1962-3, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2009-10

I'm throwing out these because they're El Nino winters: 1958-9. 1965-6, 1972-3, and 2009-10.

That leaves these 4, which are all between neutral and weak La Nina: 1956-7, 1962-3, 1989-90, 2000-01

These 4 had the following during winter in the SE US:

Dec: 3 of the 4 very cold; other one (1956) very warm
Jan: varies (2 warm; 2 cold)
Feb: 3 of the 4 very warm, the other one very cold (1963)

Based on the above, alone, for the SE, there is a rather strong signal for a very cold Dec., a hard to predict Jan., and a very warm Feb.

Now looking more closely at these 4 analogs, the very best QBO analog patterns are 1962-3 and 2000-01 because those two shifted from +QBO to -QBO the prior spring, similar to 2017, after a typical 1 year+.+QBO period. In contrast, 1956-7 first shifted into -QBO back in the prior Jan (several months earlier) and 1989-90 first shifted into -QBO way back in May of 1988. So, that is why those not as good 2 analogs' then current -QBO shifted back to +QBO by the following spring whereas 1962-3 and 2000-01 didn't shift back to +QBO until the subsequent fall or winter. Looking at 2017's QBO pattern, it, too, would likely not go back to +QBO until at least the fall of 2018. (This is the problem with using QBO. To get something really similar, you have to eliminate so many potential analogs, thus leaving one with a very small sample....but I digress. And I'm not even considering the potential effect of GW to throw the older analogs off.)

So, we're now left with the very best 2 QBO analogs: 1962-3 and 2000-01. They both had a very cold Dec. This is more evidence that especially if the first part of Dec actually ends up not cold as the models are saying, to look out for the potential of a VERY cold middle and end of Dec. and possibly into early Jan. in the SE. That is the strongest signal from these 2 analogs fwiw with even Jan cool to cold for both of these analogs. Feb. was very warm for one and very cold for the other...so no signal there.

Now, let's look at the -AO in Nov. Like 2017 is about to do, 1962 and 2000, in addition to being the very best QBO analogs with similar ENSO, each went sub -3 in Nov. whereas 1956 and 1989 did not. So, that's another reason to use 1962-3 and 2000-01 over 1956-7 and 1989-90.

The last thing I'll say about these analogs is that 2000-01 was a weak La Nina while 1962-3 was cold neutral. being that I feel we're most likely going to end up with a weak La Nina, I'd say that the very best analog is 2000-01. 2000-01 had a very cold SE Dec. (Aside: 3" of SN KATL, the most in Dec. since way back in 1917!), a cold first half of Jan., a mild 2nd half of Jan. and a mild Feb. DJF averaged ~1.5 colder than normal at KATL thanks to that cold Dec-1st half of Jan.

*****For the fun of it since I just put a decent amount of this time into it, I've just decided to make a winter forecast for the SE US based on the above analysis:

a near normal first half of Dec.
(in deference to the current not cold early Dec. model runs and likely temporary warmer change from the recent cool domination), a mainly cold Dec. 16 through Jan 15th, and a mainly mild Jan 16th through Feb 28th. DJF would come out within 2 of normal up or down for most of the SE...so call it near normal DJF (a soooooo much better winter than the last one temperaturewise). I'm still not touching overall wintry precip with a 10 foot pole, at least not right now, though I will go ahead and say that the best shot at a widespread significant SE winter storm would be Dec. 16th through Jan 15th based on my projection of cold then with 12/25-1/15 the most favored as per the longterm climo of few winter storms before Christmas.
Good work my friend.... You are spot on with your research. Front-loaded winter seems likely. Now, let's keep the Nina from getting out of hand.
 
think the Pacific is gonna pwn this Winter even with good indices tidings... No weather type is setting in for longer than 4-5 days. Baby ripples beat Mondo Blocks.
 
Yea, just a weird thought I had, what if we had Great Lake just north of us, what would all of our yearly averages be? How much of difference would it make? Instead of my normal 3-4 inch yearly average in north miss, would it be 30-40? Just because every time a good cold front or cold air blew over wouldn’t it create snow bands? What made me think about it, was last year in Madison miss, they had a snow event off the reservoir there. And I was like what if you had a lake about the size and of Tennessee to the north, how would that change things?
We get lake effect down here on the rare occasion. If the winds across the Great Lakes are right, and it's cold enough for it to reach the ground. Mostly in the mtns though. I remember one year the snow in Buffalo was over the telephone poles, lol. I'd like to see that at least once down here. Robert, I think, had a pic of snow up to near the gutters of his house in NC. That's be close :)
 
I have a feeling this winter is going to be a lot of back and forth instead of a certain type of pattern holding on for a long time. I think we'll end up benefiting from that as a lot of energy will be flying around. I have a good feeling about getting some snow in December here.
 
The WeatherBell Pioneer model has a chilly winter for the SE US with ~-1 to -1.5 F colder than normal, which is way colder than what JB has. I hope JB doesn't cover his butt if the winter were to end up cold by saying "even though I was warm, the Pioneer was cold blah blah blah...." to try to get partial credit.

Pioneer model cold bust SE US.
 
Larry Cosgrove is going for a mild SE winter with much warmer than normal Dec-Jan and warmer than normal Feb. He's also going with well below normal snowfall. He's assuming cold neutral to weak La Nina ENSO. For comparison, last winter he went much warmer than normal Dec., warmer than normal Jan, and a little colder than normal Feb.

Larry Cosgrove in the SE US: did ok for DJF. Monthlies: too warm Dec and way too warm Jan. Not warm enough Feb. Well below normal snowfall for SE was mainly a bust though he did well in the SC midlands and in FL.
 
I have a feeling this winter is going to be a lot of back and forth instead of a certain type of pattern holding on for a long time. I think we'll end up benefiting from that as a lot of energy will be flying around. I have a good feeling about getting some snow in December here.

Wow, Brick kind of nailed it with his back and forth as well as some snow in Dec in RDU area! Dang!
 
For the SE US: Whereas his DJF averaged out wasn't bad, Allan's monthlies were a bust as he had Dec and Jan much too warm and Feb much too cold. His generalized below normal snowfall for the SE was mainly a bust.

Yeah I don't understand why he went warm in the SE US in December and was cold in the east in February that rarely happens in this ENSO base state for a reason
 
Hopefully having the first freeze in November is a good sign that we'll actually get shots of cold here this winter. I think we are way overdue for a big winter storm. It's been a long time since we've had a storm with more than a couple of inches of snow. I think we'll get a good one with 6 inches or more this winter.

Brick nailed the big RDU snow, too!
 
I've never really had a good feel for any correlation between the QBO and SE winter temperatures because there are so many ways to look at the QBO magnitude, sign, and pattern that it can make for very small sample sizes. However, after reading DT's winter outlook, I just decided to analyze similar QBO autumns (back to 1948) to 2017. These are the most similar in regard to sign/magnitude and the magnitude is still slowly rising as of Oct. using this link:

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

1956-7, 1958-9, 1962-3, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1989-90, 2000-01, 2009-10

I'm throwing out these because they're El Nino winters: 1958-9. 1965-6, 1972-3, and 2009-10.

That leaves these 4, which are all between neutral and weak La Nina: 1956-7, 1962-3, 1989-90, 2000-01

These 4 had the following during winter in the SE US:

Dec: 3 of the 4 very cold; other one (1956) very warm
Jan: varies (2 warm; 2 cold)
Feb: 3 of the 4 very warm, the other one very cold (1963)

Based on the above, alone, for the SE, there is a rather strong signal for a very cold Dec., a hard to predict Jan., and a very warm Feb.

Now looking more closely at these 4 analogs, the very best QBO analog patterns are 1962-3 and 2000-01 because those two shifted from +QBO to -QBO the prior spring, similar to 2017, after a typical 1 year+.+QBO period. In contrast, 1956-7 first shifted into -QBO back in the prior Jan (several months earlier) and 1989-90 first shifted into -QBO way back in May of 1988. So, that is why those not as good 2 analogs' then current -QBO shifted back to +QBO by the following spring whereas 1962-3 and 2000-01 didn't shift back to +QBO until the subsequent fall or winter. Looking at 2017's QBO pattern, it, too, would likely not go back to +QBO until at least the fall of 2018. (This is the problem with using QBO. To get something really similar, you have to eliminate so many potential analogs, thus leaving one with a very small sample....but I digress. And I'm not even considering the potential effect of GW to throw the older analogs off.)

So, we're now left with the very best 2 QBO analogs: 1962-3 and 2000-01. They both had a very cold Dec. This is more evidence that especially if the first part of Dec actually ends up not cold as the models are saying, to look out for the potential of a VERY cold middle and end of Dec. and possibly into early Jan. in the SE. That is the strongest signal from these 2 analogs fwiw with even Jan cool to cold for both of these analogs. Feb. was very warm for one and very cold for the other...so no signal there.

Now, let's look at the -AO in Nov. Like 2017 is about to do, 1962 and 2000, in addition to being the very best QBO analogs with similar ENSO, each went sub -3 in Nov. whereas 1956 and 1989 did not. So, that's another reason to use 1962-3 and 2000-01 over 1956-7 and 1989-90.

The last thing I'll say about these analogs is that 2000-01 was a weak La Nina while 1962-3 was cold neutral. being that I feel we're most likely going to end up with a weak La Nina, I'd say that the very best analog is 2000-01. 2000-01 had a very cold SE Dec. (Aside: 3" of SN KATL, the most in Dec. since way back in 1917!), a cold first half of Jan., a mild 2nd half of Jan. and a mild Feb. DJF averaged ~1.5 colder than normal at KATL thanks to that cold Dec-1st half of Jan.

*****For the fun of it since I just put a decent amount of this time into it, I've just decided to make a winter forecast for the SE US based on the above analysis:

a near normal first half of Dec.
(in deference to the current not cold early Dec. model runs and likely temporary warmer change from the recent cool domination), a mainly cold Dec. 16 through Jan 15th, and a mainly mild Jan 16th through Feb 28th. DJF would come out within 2 of normal up or down for most of the SE...so call it near normal DJF (a soooooo much better winter than the last one temperaturewise). I'm still not touching overall wintry precip with a 10 foot pole, at least not right now, though I will go ahead and say that the best shot at a widespread significant SE winter storm would be Dec. 16th through Jan 15th based on my projection of cold then with 12/25-1/15 the most favored as per the longterm climo of few winter storms before Christmas.

Self critique: 1st half Dec good with near normal overall SE. 2nd half Dec too cold since it was pretty close to normal, not cold. Jan 1-15: good with the cold. 1/16-2/28 overall good except warmth started ~4 days later than 1/16 and I had no idea there'd be record warmth in Feb.

I didn't really make an overall wintry precip forecast. I just said 12/16-1/15 best shot at widespread sig. SE winter storm. Only one of the 3 big SE storms was during then though the historic SE coastal was.

Overall grade: B. I'm content.

Edit: another reason not higher than B is because I called for near normal DJF (between -2 and +2) and due to the record warm Feb, it was nearly +4 at KATL and warmer than normal in much of the SE though ti was near normal at RDU and at some other more northern locations.
 
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Self critique: 1st half Dec good with near normal overall SE. 2nd half Dec too cold since it was pretty close to normal, not cold. Jan 1-15: good with the cold. 1/16-2/28 overall good except warmth started ~4 days later than 1/16 and I had no idea there'd be record warmth in Feb.

I didn't really make an overall wintry precip forecast. I just said 12/16-1/15 best shot at widespread sig. SE winter storm. Only one of the 3 big SE storms was during then though the historic SE coastal was.

Overall grade: B. I'm content.
Larry,
You beat the pants off of most, and especialy one old Curmudgeon (yours truly).
Great job!
A- is more like it!
Best!
Phil
 
Larry,
You beat the pants off of most, and especialy one old Curmudgeon (yours truly).
Great job!
A- is more like it!
Best!
Phil

You're too kind, Phil. Another reason I didn't go higher than B is because I called for a near normal DJF (between -2 and +2). But due to the record warm Feb, it was nearly +4 at KATL for DJF and was warmer than normal in much of the SE though it was near normal at RDU and at some other more northern locations. SAV was a little warmer than +2.
 
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