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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

Storm5

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Let's hope something good happens the last week of February

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Lol, SD, I used to play that game long ago. Late this month could be our best chance all winter to see something good.
 
Checking out the MJO, the GFS OP puts it back in phase 8 late month while the GEFS puts it in a weak phase 7 but it has it pointing towards back at phase 8 late month. With the trends I've been seeing on the MJO, I think late month will be on a weak phase 8 (possibly to a moderate phase 8) to a weak phase 7. After the system of the 24th-25th, that's when we'll see a different track of systems. We'll start to see more systems coming along in the southern stream along the subtropical jet. As I mentioned last week (I believe it was last week) that we could see more overrunning events because of the moist subtropical jet. This could mean, good moist wet snow or even sleet/ZR events as the cold layer gets underneath the subtropical jet. I'm not saying that's what's set in stone, no, I'm saying that's a possibility.
 
I would think by late February chances for freezing rain go way down give climo . I bet larry has some zr stats for late February

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March 1980 comes to mind as an event that had sleet in some areas (my dad's senior year journal said that they were driving some family home from the airport and they started hearing ice pellets clang off the car in early March), but that is just one event and I'm not sure how temps looked in months beforehand. Also not sure it was all that much sleet.

EDIT: There was also most likely another widespread winter storm earlier in that winter.
 
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Here are some of the top winter events for ATL during this time period.

03/02/1980 - 2.7" SNW
03/02/1942 - 3.7" SNW
02/26/1952 - 3.9" SNW
03/01/2009 (which we remember this one) 4.2" SNW
I'm sure Larry and Webber will have more reports.
 
Ugh, for the umpteenth time I can virtually guarantee you that the MJO is not going back into phase 8 at the end of the month... Stop looking at the GEFS. It's complete garbage w/ western hemisphere MJO forecasts
How does the EPS look down the road? Also, based on what I have read here the MJO isn't having much of an effect, so why worry that much about it? I would just watch for storm signals since the pattern and teleconnections have failed us it seems.
 
Webber, even if it is in phase 1, this still means cold along the east, except maybe for southern AL, GA, most of FL, southern SC and NC. I'm looking for trends on the MJO and on the models, not looking for things set in stone right now cause it will change.
 
Here are some of the top winter events for ATL during this time period.

03/02/1980 - 2.7" SNW
03/02/1942 - 3.7" SNW
02/26/1952 - 3.9" SNW
03/01/2009 (which we remember this one) 4.2" SNW
I'm sure Larry and Webber will have more reports.
So 1 good snow event in ATL in that time period in the last 35 years. Not a good track record.
 
So 1 good snow event in ATL in that time period in the last 35 years. Not a good track record.
I'm not counting just that one, I'm counting the ones in early March too cause their not far away obviously from late month from Feb. Also, if there will be a winter event, the timing won't be right on the 27th. Timing will change, if there will be a winter event, it may come it eariler or later. But based from history, winter events can happen in early March.
 
Webber, even if it is in phase 1, this still means cold along the east, except maybe for southern AL, GA, most of FL, southern SC and NC. I'm looking for trends on the MJO and on the models, not looking for things set in stone right now cause it will change.
Somewhat depends on what time period you are looking at (JFM or FMA) - for me, I prefer the composite with the month in question in the middle. However - remember - those are just composites, are not a forecast, and there is sooo much more that goes into a weather pattern than a single index or an index composite (as this year has aptly demonstrated, and continues to) ;)

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