Will the groundhog say 6 more weeks of spring....I mean winter
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern February Discussion
- Status
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Climo says that for whatever reason to look for the best shot at something major during week 2 and into week 3. Week 1 has tended to be relatively weak for some oddball reason, at least for GA/SC/NC, even though it is the coldest week of Feb for normals.
Meanwhile, the 12Z EPS continues the trend of the EPS being much milder than the GEFS for the first few days of Feb. My money is currently closer to the EPS than the GEFS for then.
Meanwhile, the 12Z EPS continues the trend of the EPS being much milder than the GEFS for the first few days of Feb. My money is currently closer to the EPS than the GEFS for then.
However, the 12Z EPS is far from doom and gloom for winter lovers as it develops a stout -AO/-NAO during the 11-15 day period, which would be in the lead up to the more climo favorable week #2 of Feb for SE winter storms. Keep in mind the 0Z EPS' forecast (supported by the 0Z GEFS) of an MJO moving into a more favorable (for SE cold) inside the left side of the circle by around 2/5. This combo of indices, should they actually verify, could very well mean we have an interesting 2nd-3rd week in Feb. just in time for better winter storm climo. Keep hope alive but also don't get hopes up too high.
I'm confident that down here in the Deeper South, we have a much higher chance the second week and onward of February.
I will see about getting a blog post done soon with previous events around here.
I will see about getting a blog post done soon with previous events around here.
It looks like we might see a short period of warming as that trough off the west coast moves onshore. With a ridge building in behind it and the pv toward Hudson Bay things look good
Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Looking forward to it, Shawn. Let me know if you'd like info on the low tracks (what part of FL they crossed, which is fascinating to me) to include in your post. At some point soon I'm expecting to do my next blog post. I just didn't want to my next one too soon after my first one. I think spacing them apart in time may be preferable.
Post as much as you want. The more content, the better!
And, I think I should be able to pull some old h5 charts. But thanks, and I'll let you know if I need to find some.
I almost forgot about the Euro weeklies. Not bad at all. They have a -NAO/-AO/western N.A. ridge weeks 4-6. Also, after a dry weeks 1-2, they go up to near normal, which is pretty wet for the upper SE/CAD regions. They have 2 meter temp.'s near normal weeks 4-6. However, that is colder than the warmth of the prior run. Also, IF the -AO/-NAO/western ridge were to verify, I'd fully expect a colder than normal SE US.
Flo
Member
The best snows I have seen in SC are usually in February. But I haven't seen a good one in about 7 years.
Are you basing this on something or just your gut? If it's your gut Im not sold. lol
Basing it on this:
TOP 10 CAE Snow Events:
16.0 INCHES...FEBRUARY 9-10 1973
11.8 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-14 1899
11.7 INCHES...FEBRUARY 25-26 1914
11.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 24-25 1894
8.8 INCHES...DECEMBER 10-11 1958
8.6 INCHES...FEBRUARY 12-13 2010
8.5 INCHES...FEBRUARY 11-12 1895
8.1 INCHES...FEBRUARY 10-11 1912
6.3 INCHES...FEBRUARY 23 1901
6.2 INCHES...JANUARY 29-30 1936
tonysc
Member
Thats incredible that CAE had 9" of snow on Dec 10, 1958. I need to look up that storm and try to find some more info about it
Last edited:
whatalife
Moderator
My mom told me told me about this storm a couple of times. She was about 12 years old, and she recalled her and her siblings talking about the depth of the snow. They'd never seen anything like it until February '73.
By the way, there were two good snowstorms in '73. There was a 4" snowstorm in January, and then, of course, the "Great Southern Snowstorm" in February.
Who can forget that one, tony?! Loved that particular storm. I lost lots of sleep following it for 9 or 10 days. The path of that particular storm was similar to the February '73 storm, but if it had "bombed out," then we probably would've seen totals near the '73 superstorm.
Flo
Member
That 2010 storm i was in aiken. I was working at my mother in laws when it started. It started as all snow and stuck from the first flake through the last. It was big wet and fluffy. I left as soon as it started, by the time i got home 30 minutes later there was over an inch on the groubd. That was and still is the most snow ive ever seen.
Sent from my VS870 4G using Tapatalk
Sent from my VS870 4G using Tapatalk
Flo
Member
- Status