Severe Severe Weather Threat April 2-3

[Webberweather53]

This storm early next week definitely looks like it could be the real deal over the southern MS valley and portions of the southeastern US and I wouldn't be shocked to see the SPC break out the crayons for this storm as early as tomorrow... Fairly remarkable consistency across most guidance that a strong ULL will eject from the southern Rockies late this weekend, and intensify as it attempts to phase w/ another s/w currently over the Gulf of Alaska. Synoptically, this certainly has the potential to bring the most significant bout severe weather to the southern tier considering that this ULL is liable to be the strongest in the series of ULLs we've observed in the past week or so, closer to the moisture source over the GOM, and may phase w/ the northern stream (evident here in the northern Rockies) as it lifts towards the OH Valley....

Post away!

 

[NWMSGuy]

Thanks for the info! Definetely bears watching.

 

[ForsythSnow]

No doubt that even though it is a little ways out, it is still stronger than the next system.The Gulf Coast states and Georgia should begin to watch this closely as we get closer.

 

[NWMSGuy]

So what is the GFS doing at hour 126? Looks like two different area's of low pressure. Is that common?

 

[SD]

Damn

 

[Flurry]

Damn

Very nasty looking...Need to pay close attention to this one

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Refresh my memory. What does above graphic reflect??

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[pcbjr]

Damn

Understatement of the day ...

 

[Arcc]

Refresh my memory. What does above graphic reflect??

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It's simulated IR tops which tend to show convection. It means almost nothing here as that model shows a mess.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Thanks

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[NWMSGuy]

As it appears to me with latest GFS run, I am out of the Severe weather arena with this storm considering position of Low track.

 

[RollTide18]

So this looks to be a threat south of the recent threat areas?

 

[Storm5]

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[Phillip l]

Atlanta stations are starting to mention a significant severe threat for Monday.

 

[Arcc]

We need some blocking.....

 

[Storm5]

Euro and gfs differ with track . Euro takes the low through eastern Arkansas

Gfs takes it through southern Mississippi into central Alabama . Big differences. Euro suggests a severe threat , gfs suggests heavy rain event


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[CoreyTheSecond]

Is this still looking like a potential big threat?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Decided to stop in and see what everyone thought about Monday because I just saw RAH post on Facebook that some of the model solutions look scary, but confidence is low right now. Have to keep an eye on this one.

 

[SD]

Decided to stop in and see what everyone thought about Monday because I just saw RAH post on Facebook that some of the model solutions look scary, but confidence is low right now. Have to keep an eye on this one.

Yep this one has a lot of potential but we will see

 

[malak05]

Well yesterday pretty much sums up as a pretty good bust so who knows what this system will actually bring