Severe 6/24-6/25/23 severe weather
- Thread starter Shaggy
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Nws offices still running ahead of modeled timing. They are saying late afternoon early evening while the models are all around midnight for my area
Full sunshine cranking here in JoCo. Could be setting up for an active afternoon.
HrrrrrRRR setting the table for a major bust this afternoon. Been honking that for a few runs now. Only showing a couple of storm clusters and scattered sprinkles.
NAM, FV3, Woofs all looking pretty good though. And we know the HrrRRrr usually sucks. We'll see, I guess. Still expecting a few clusters and line segments to provide the primary wind threat.
Yeah, I was looking and noticed that. If I'm reading it right, around the Triangle between 8-9? Would be fine with me to skip severe weather.
Hrrr mixes rdu to 58 if that happens its game over but how many times have we seen the hrrr over mix the BL only to have to correct in the warm months? None of the other cams mix as much
Willing to bet it’s out to lunch. Don’t really see much inhibiting development right now.. absolutely full sunshine everywhere during peak heating hours. CIN has all but worn away. CAPE pushing 2000 already. Lapse rates around 7. DCAPE at 1300 (really high for damaging straight line wind support) .. can’t really find the kryptonite to the atmosphere that would inhibit storms from firing today.
Better forcing is just now getting to the mountains, better divergence gets here locally around 23z. Going to be interesting to see if we get rapid development in the apps over the next 1-3 hours should be a good precursor to what we see farther east
True this would ruin things … but my station at home is at 72.5 for the dew point. HRRR had me at 63 at this time it’s latest run..
Yeah it's looking like it's out to lunch for the time being.