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Severe 2024 Severe Discussion



“This is a high-end environment. An upgrade to a tornado-driven High
Risk was considered. There remains some lingering uncertainty with
regard to the number of intense tornadoes that will occur. An
increase in tornado probabilities will certainly be warranted should
confidence in coverage and preferred corridors increase.”
 
Downeastnc said:
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Caption/translation for video starting at 0:40:
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ą̴̨̺͚̠͖̺̜̣͓͋̾a̴̡̲͓͉͚̜̳̖͈͕̱̤̻̠͕͙͌̐̒̀̎͒͛̏͜a̸̢̢̨͚͉̖͚͕̖̹̞̖̟̹̦̣͕̤̯̫̔̈́́́̾̈́̈́͊͌̈́̈͗̉̈́̂̊̉͘͘͜͜͝͝͝͝a̷̞̜̟̲̝͎̻̼̞̜̪̗͕̤̪͌̉̃̔̌͗̍̇̿͝ͅa̵̝̳͖̦͉̹̗͈͔̗̜͉̫͎̞̩͓̬̦͂̀̑̔̔̾̅̕̚͝ͅp̷̛̜̭̤͖̭̹͗̀́̇̅͊̌̒̽̑̀̀̈́͗͊̔̽͘̕͝͝p̷̨̨̛̛̛̼͙͙̯̦͖͔̦̼̪͈͉̩͖̥͖̩̖͇̖̦̩̗̘͖̩̻̈́̊̄͆̈̂͂̓̚̕t̷̡̨̮͕̯̱̰̃͌̾̽̒̿̀͐̿̌̆́͂̋̕̕t̸̢̧̠̝̱͔͈͚̼̥͎̭̗͈̠͈̬̝̊ͅț̵̢̤̩̲̥̞͈̲̲̖͈̮͎̩͖͚̰̥͙̰͍̑̑̈́̐͆ͅȧ̷̖͍̟̟̲͔̭͙̬̳̘̠́̂̅̈́̓̏͐͌̅̉̊́͐̆͗̍̑́͠a̸̛̳͓͇͗͌̉̃͒̏̊́â̷̢̧̨̯̙̭̪͍̮̠͖̹̩͔̤̹̹̹̈́́̑̀̎͆́̀͌́̽̇̍́̚̕͜͜ą̵̨̢̛̬̼̠͉̰̻̯͔̞̬̠͙̝̈̋̿̈́̊̍͋̇̊͛̾̔̒̀̀͆͗̅̅͌̕̕͠ͅă̶̧̢̛̛͕̰̣̞͙̼̩̻͊͊̀͐͛̿̒̋̐̽̒͠ͅá̸̢̗͓̥̥͍̟̹͙͔͙̱̪͇̗̳̟̟͉̜̘̞̩͈̇ͅͅͅa̶̡̢̻̘̬̥̮͔̠̯̳̞̪̞̘̩̮̎̈́ͅͅà̴̜̖͉͔̼̞̘̯͕͎͖͉̎̉́͆ͅą̸̧̢͚͇͈̼̰̳͓̟̟̙͕̲͔̪̻̙͇͉̄̆̌̚͝ḁ̴̢̨̧͚͇͇̮̟̤̻̭̬̞̞̲̞͎̮̩͇̦͈̪̘̩̘̗̗͑i̶̡̨̧̡̻̯͎̠̬̳͚̟̘̦̬̺̖̥̖̜̫̣͈̘̿̚͜ͅͅỉ̷̡͈̖̌͛̓͂͌̆̂e̸̛͉͉̓̐̉́͂̊̊̆̕̕͜ȩ̴̛̬͊̈́̒̓̅́́̓̆̎̈̂̓̿̇̓̕͘ę̶̡̡̛̘͖̻̺̙̪̟͙̻͙̖̜̹̫̯̰̱̈̿͊̽̍́͊̈́͌͒̇́̽̓͐̏̃̀̊̒͒̀͑̈́́̕͘̚͝ͅȩ̸̨̧͍̮̹̞͈̭̬̟̲̱͍̥͈̗͍͉͈̟̘̘̍͗̄͆͊̂̏͐́̔̓̎̆̈́̆̃̅̑̒̅̾̇̅͂͑͘͜͜͝͝ĝ̵̨̧͈̬͔̙̱͍̘̼̺̩̫͚̬̬͎̋͐͌̾̑̄̓̈̊͛̀̊́̄̋͘͜͜͠͝ǧ̷̢̢̢̛͖̟̞͇͕̯̭̦̲̳͉͙͕̫̳͙̬̬̘͇̰͓̝̾̌̓̓͋͐͗̿͘͘ͅķ̵̨̟̻̳̠̳̻̟̝͉͎̖̀́k̴̳͈͙̱͉̣̦͈̫̜̥̞͉̗͈̬̻͍̝̝̗̳̺̎͐͒̑̂͐̇̀̆̔̀̀̈́̋͐̕͜͜͝͝ͅk̶̨̭̗̲͔̝̠̼͖̳͖̣̖̹̬̻͘ą̸̡̢̨͓̝̻̳̺̼͖͕͔̟̟̥̰̘͉͎̤̬̠̘̭̗͖͛͑ͅͅa̶̧̧̛̛̭̺̮̼̫̙̪̩̭͍̘̩̼̹̜͕̰̭͎̠̿͋͆͜͝ȧ̴̛̞̞͇̳̗̜̜̫̘̈́̈̄̔͒̇̀̑͛͂̋̅̔͌͘̚͠ȁ̷̢̹̀̓a̴̛͈̳̎͂͊̀͗̚͝ā̶̹̺͖͎̟̤̭̫̹͎̗͈̉̉̒̈́̌͒̓͋͋͝͝á̷̧̢̩͎̬̘̯̪̰̱͚̼̳̫̺̖̯̥̫̭͚̝̰͔̯͆̓̿̀̈́͂̃̈́̈̍͗͌̆͋͂̾̋̌̚̚̕͠à̵̢̻͇͙͍̥̤̭̎̒̎̐͑̃͋̽͠ạ̷̀͛̀̾̑́̄̊̚͜͠a̴̛̛̩̭͍̮͓̺̔̄̌̊̿̈́͛̊͊̇̆̂̽̆̾͂͐̍́͗̂̃̔̿̚͝ä̷̼̤̯̬̰̼́͒̽͘͝͝ͅa̵̡̢̢̧̛̱̦͈͔̤̞͙̹̹͍͉̥̲͎̫̬͓̥̯̻̖̳̯͇͈͑́̏͐͂̾͝a̴̛̛̙̻̞̼͍̥̜̞̟̠͔̤̺͈̫̹͇̖̳̭̼̯͎̹̜̅̆̀̋͒̇̍̆̽̊̂̃̇͐̊̚͘̚͘ͅͅp̶̛̣̱̯̙͈̊̉́͂̇͐̔̾͐̈́̔͛̈p̴͉̜̯̪̥̹̘̤̬̼͇̣͎̘̪̗͕̗̳̞̻̮̦̗͍̋̉͐̊̊͐̄͐͆͜͝t̵̢̨̞̳̺̩̬̖̲̦̑̏̓͂̑͌̏͛̽͒́̀̇̈́̓t̷̡̡̡̢̨͇͎̗̙̥͚̜̪̥̫̘̳̻͙̤̞̓̑̏̽̈́̎̈́̓̎̀̉͜ẗ̶̢͚͚̪͙̯͙̝́̃̓̊͊͋̌̄̏̑̋̊̒̓̎̑̇͂̈͒͐̚͘̚͘͘á̸̡̦̺͈͈͕̟̣̺͖̦͂̂̈́̈́̿̏̂͆̀̿̌́͐̓͋̆̑̇̒̒͌̂̏̀͝ͅa̷̙̘̜̻̣̣̹͕͇͈͎͇̣̣̥̬͍͍͋̈́ͅą̵̡̠̹̠͐̿̂͒̃͊̀̑ͅḁ̴̛̛͓͎̼̙͙̮̰̟̹͎̤̼̙̠͈̗̲͙͔̺́͂͂͋̍̒͂̈́͊͐͒̀̑͗̀̒̅̈̀̉̂͜͝͝͝ą̷̡̢̖̫͔̼͉̱͂̿̏à̵͙̟̤̳͚̗̮͎̿̍͐̍͑̍̽́͋̾̀̈́̾͘͜͠͝͠͝a̶̢͖͖̖̪̫̙̺͉̼̻̹̲̹̲͔͑́̌̔̋͒̆̾̋̿͝a̶̝̯̤͂͂͊̇̓̂̆͘ā̵̺̎͝â̵̢̝̪̪͓͖͙̯͖̰̟̻͉̺͈͍̮͍͔͚͔̚i̸̢͓̜̬̤̰͔͕͖̝̍̓̓̀͋̐̀̇̀̾̅̿̀̆̑͝ỉ̷̖̖͍̹̈́̑̎̊̍͐͛̏͋͛̀̈̍̉͆͝͠͠ȩ̷̨͓̗̭̗̗͖̹̣̮̜̫̭͍͈͙̗̅̿͐͌͌̉̈́̒̃̓̈̃͛̉̈́̋͒̋̕͘͜͜͠͝ͅę̶̡̡͙̺̞̬̖̥͇̙̻̤͇̱̦̲͎͓͖͔̫̻̱̝̙̲̬̼̄̈́͛̍̒̑̽̄̊͗̍͛̓̎̍̔̕ͅé̷̡̲̭̙̤͙̯̺̮̱̘̩̥̰̝̜̞̺̞͕̞̩̞̐̆̉e̶̡̱̊͋̆̈̃̀̽̐̒̋͘g̵̢̡̧̛̛̮͍̥̙̤͓͚̩͍̲̖̗̥̺̯̜͉̰̯̹͕̫̯̉̂͂̃̓́̎̑̿̍͗̑̋̈̒́̇̔͊̈́͂̽̈́͘͜͠͝ͅg̶̢̢̛̪̰͙͕̩͔̠̬͕̮̺̲̻̘̺͗̆̍̆̐̊̌̋̊̇̄̓̊̐̈͛͑̅̀͌͝͠k̶̢͈̘̟̻̹͉͎̤̬̻̰̖͕̬̜͚̣̩̘̫̖̫̻̳͑͊͂̒̌͋̓̓̈́̏͊̿͛̔̒͊͑͊̽̚͜͜͝ķ̷̘͉̗͎͕̰̅̃̐̔̋̄̆͆̀̐̇̏̑̿̄̆̀̇̋̅̎͆͒̐̈́͠͝k̸̢̡̪͉̘̺̦̩̯̱͔̺͉̯͚̙̳̻̻̻͍̬̻̦̮̣͕̟̈͋̿͊̍̾̂͑̓͊̈́̔̆͗͑̈́͘͜͠a̶̛͕̩̗̮̬̅̍̒̈́̽̆̂̐́̏̈̓̈̈̽̽͌͋̎͌̏̊́̃́̈́̕a̵̡̟͇̙̝̥̬̹̜̦̦̣͇̤͕͕̼̤̘̻̪̲̋͗͆̈́͐͗͊̌̂͗̾͒͑͒̑̈́̒͂͋̈́̕͜͝a̵̧̨̧̢̺̲̞̳͇̼̭̙̘̳̪̲̙̯͇͔͚̼͕͐̓̋̽͊̈́̏̂̅͊͑͑̉͋̽̊͘͠͝a̴̪̟͖͎̠͎̹̺̜͖̠͈̰͉͌̅͂͒̆a̴͚̲̾͂̔̽̇̔̑͒ä̴̡̧̧̩̱͓̬̰͕͚̺̪͔̺̬̮̞̥̠̭̝̲́̂̂͋͐́̎̀̆̑̈́̀͗̆̾̆͊̕̚a̴̛̺̲̣͚͈̳̗͎͇̮͓̤̘̺̾̌̉̌́͌̂̍̑͌̔͋̈̈́̀̋̐̊͘̚͝ǎ̷̡̢̨̯̭͔̱̟̗̠̹̤̼̮͇̰̺̞̦̣͍͚̬̺̟̔̾́̈́̑̓͆̓͊̎̒͒ͅͅͅa
 
Received 2.1 from the last system. Perhaps the “Jonesville Rain Shield” will stop this one.?.. It’s slipping to our south.

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A few counties away! I always miss the good stuffB98FA3C1-CEF6-44D2-BCDF-68442C2362A4.jpeg
 
Not expecting much severe tomorrow but if something can get going it could need watching. Some veering evident in soundings and a tornado or 2 would t surprise me in coastal areas of SC maybe NC.



Despite limited insolation due to thick clouds, unstable
conditions should develop Tuesday through advection of warm,
humid air at or just above the surface. GFS forecast soundings
suggest up to 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE could develop. Bulk shear
across the 0-6 km layer of 30-40 knots is sufficient to support
organized storms, and curvature in low level wind profiles
suggests enough helicity may be present to create a "non-zero"
tornado potential. HREF updraft helicity ensembles suggest this
threat may be highest Tuesday morning south of Florence and
Conway. The more widespread threat could be locally heavy
rainfall as up to three inches is forecast (storm total) in the
Georgetown area.
 
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