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Pattern February 2024

weatherfide said:
View attachment 142659Looks "meh" on the GEFS at 06Z 1/16/2024 to start off the month. Let's see where it goes from here!
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As I said in the January thread. There’s nothing wrong with that look. It’s a smoothed out mean. You can still see the strong signal for a tall western ridge better positioned and good confluence over the northeast
 
February and March of 2014 where two great months in Greensboro wx history. Had countless events, especially March. Racked up 16 total inches just off those 2 months. I believe 2014-2016 we where in a long, pretty strong el Niño. I stand to be corrected. That Jan was very similar to this one. Surprisingly Gboro has had 2 separate cases of a Trace of Snow logged in the books in Jan 2024. Anyway, I think there have been something like 30 el ninos since 1900 and like 5-6 registered as strong. The 2014-2016 is one of them. So who knows. Just trying to find some nuggets. We will have a pretty good idea once we flip the calendar on 2/1 and are able to see 15 days out on the models how things are gonna shake out. I'm really rooting for a tall western ridge to get set up right on the money and stay locked in. That want guarantee anything, but will give us way better odds to get other factors that come along to work in our favor. Its the #1 item I root for and look for pattern chasing, even before I glance up in the NW Atlantic.
 
February will likely be a month where we see saw from cold periods to mild ones and will average slightly below normal overall. I do think with the swings of the temperatures it will lead to more cyclogenesis coming through from California to Texas and then across the gulf states and, hopefully, they will come during the cool spells and we can score a winter storm or two. With the shorter wave lengths and an active SJT, we are bound to see a threat during the month for the entire SE but I would not bet a lot of money on it being all snow.
 
NCSNOW said:
February and March of 2014 where two great months in Greensboro wx history. Had countless events, especially March. Racked up 16 total inches just off those 2 months. I believe 2014-2016 we where in a long, pretty strong el Niño. I stand to be corrected. That Jan was very similar to this one. Surprisingly Gboro has had 2 separate cases of a Trace of Snow logged in the books in Jan 2024. Anyway, I think there have been something like 30 el ninos since 1900 and like 5-6 registered as strong. The 2014-2016 is one of them. So who knows. Just trying to find some nuggets. We will have a pretty good idea once we flip the calendar on 2/1 and are able to see 15 days out on the models how things are gonna shake out. I'm really rooting for a tall western ridge to get set up right on the money and stay locked in. That want guarantee anything, but will give us way better odds to get other factors that come along to work in our favor. Its the #1 item I root for and look for pattern chasing, even before I glance up in the NW Atlantic.
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13-14 Neutral
14-15 Weak El Nino
15-16 Super El Nino
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I'll go with 2014 February that's when I had my all time biggest snow 19 inches, that def band was something else 4 inches an hour for a few hours. It snowed like 8 inches overnight and def band came through that morning and dropped 11 inches in 4 hours it was amazing...
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That was the one where I was out of town on business in Detroit lol, ugh. They got a foot at home with big finish / big flakes that morning like you mention. That storm had huge potential out in the piedmont too, but Raleigh kind of got in on the early overrunning wave of the storm (photo of fire and cars wrecked everywhere), and western piedmont got hit harder with the 2nd wave of the trailing upper low moving in. Needed to have those 2 sync up
 
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