Tropical Hurricane Franklin

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Here's the animation: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80
 
Models have really dropped off on the wind possibilities when it gets into the Gulf. Meanwhile, if the storm gains 10 mph before 11 tonight, it would be classified as rapid intensification. I personally think we could see a cat 1 before landfall at the rate its strengthening.
 
There's definitely a good chance Franklin undergoes binary interaction w/ the central American monsoon gyre and thus actually verifies south of the NHC forecast in the Bay of Campeche as was true during Ernesto (2012), Karl (2010), and Stan (2005)...

Stan (2005)
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Karl (2010)
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Ernesto (2012)
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The GFS is catching onto this last second WSW-SW hook into Mexico as Franklin rotates cyclonically around the monsoon gyre on its latest 12z run
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So far, the HWRF is doing best as development speed goes on the short range models. The HMON was too weak. The NAVGEM is doing well for the medium range models as it has the pressure pretty close and winds as well for a couple days worth of runs. The GFS, CMC, and Euro have been a little weak and haven't strengthened the storm until the Gulf much.
 
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