Nam good
Its certainly doubtful, but the model watching is entertaining.I hope you guys get something. That would be cool.
It really is. Bout time you guys had something. May be the start of something for the next 6 weeks.Its certainly doubtful, but the model watching is entertaining.
I think most would be happy with a dusting. It doesn't take much to make southerners happy.I hope y’all get blanketed with half an inch! Story of my life!
GFS looks slightly better
View attachment 139694
WoahGFS looks slightly better
View attachment 139694
Interesting that the mention the 12z NAM backing off from 6z. Now the 18z has come back to a solution closer to the 6zGSP Discussion
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 PM New Year`s Day: Flat upper ridging will traverse the
CFWA Tuesday night, ahead of a potent shortwave trough moving in
from the west across the Southern Plains. Model guidance are in
good agreement with the shortwave traveling along the Gulf Coast,
inducing weak surface cyclogenesis as a coastal low develops
underneath. Expect increasing mid to high clouds late Tuesday night
into Wednesday before completely blanketing the CFWA by Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures are expected to drop 5 or so degrees below
normal for lows Tuesday night. Temperatures will remain a few ticks
below normal for highs Wednesday afternoon due to being disrupted
by the increasing cloud cover.
Conditions start to change relatively quick later Wednesday as the
coastal low pushes south of the CFWA, across the Florida Panhandle
late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Good upper divergence will
settle over the region as a piece of the southern stream jet to
the south settles over the southeastern CONUS. Factor in weak
isentropic lift and a decent moisture transport from deep layer
southwesterly flow will support at least mentionable PoPs in the
forecast across most of the area. Profiles will be saturated enough
from the top-down to support ice nucleation in the cloud tops. With
dry air in place ahead of the system, the process of evaporational
cooling will occur before any precip makes contact with the surface,
which will lead to wet-bulbing as the low-levels cool to a point
that will support snow across the mountains Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. 850mb temperatures are in question outside of the
mountains, but will linger close to the freezing point. Wet-bulb
temperatures will be above freezing when the primary QPF response
is expected late Wednesday night across the Piedmont. Can`t fully
rule out rain with mixing with snow/sleet across the Piedmont zones,
but with guidance pushing the precip out sooner than previous runs,
temperatures won`t have enough time to cool enough for a complete
changeover, despite what the 06Z run of the NAM suggests, and now
the 12Z NAM has barely any wintry precip-types at all outside of the
mountains. This lowers confidence even more for wintry precipitation
outside of the mountains. Only light accumulations in the mountains
are expected as the better QPF amounts and lift reside south of the
CFWA. Temperatures will be near-normal for lows Wednesday night. Dry
high pressure will move in from the northwest as the shortwave
trough axis shifts offshore by mid-morning Thursday. CAA filters
in behind the departing system, which will keep the mountains cold
during the day Thursday with highs in the 30s and low to mid 40s
in the major mountain valleys. Temperatures should rebound close
to normal for the Piedmont zones.