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Pattern January thread part deux

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Yeah, that 18z GFS is a cluster at 500mb vort.  wonky.

 
Stormlover said:
Storm5 said:
Tarheel1 said:
And Maine too!! Guaranteed snow! Lol
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in 5 weeks....

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No, in 8 to 14 days...that's one to two weeks
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you clearly haven't been around . I was referring to the guy who was punting the next 4-5.....

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Looks like the gfs keeps trying to establish a split flow with systems cutting underneath in Southern California. It's also been showing this on the GEFS. Could be a good setup.
 
The 18z GFS is....well needless to say it's interesting. It clearly shows the cutter that is also going to be the system that ends the western trough pattern, but after that it looks a little loopy to me. If it gets straightened out I definitely agree on a possible period of January 27th-February 2nd.
 
The model consensus for a couple of days has shown the coldest relative to normal during the 11-15 to be in the southern US with well below normal SE, near normal northern tier, and above normal in Canada. That would be one of the most favorable setups for a winter storm in the SE US if only the upper trough would be centered near the Mississippi and thus allow moisture to overrun the cold/~WSW 500 mb flow.
 
GaWx said:
The model consensus for a couple of days has shown the coldest relative to normal during the 11-15 to be in the southern US with well below normal SE, near normal northern tier, and above normal in Canada. That would be one of the most favorable setups for a winter storm in the SE US if only the upper trough would be centered near the Mississippi and thus allow moisture to overrun the cold/~WSW 500 mb flow.
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Yep, that's what it takes for a big dog miller A
 
The last couple days on the EPS run makes me very excited, PV sinking south southwest through Hudson Bay and the EPO ridge trying to poke northward toward the pole. I love it
 
18z gfs goes all in on trying to destroy the 10mb pv. Warming after warming and displacement into the Greenland Scandinavia area

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Testing...Stupid post issues...

Is anyone else who is using Tapatalk having issues deleting their post if they post the wrong thing?
 
whatalife said:
Testing...Stupid post issues...
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Working for now but I put info in the Support tab - just in case!

OOPS - your post did not include the Taptalk sentence until after I replied - delay in text making it to the BB?
 
pcbjr said:
whatalife said:
Testing...Stupid post issues...
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Working for now but I put info in the Support tab - just in case!

OOPS - your post did not include the Taptalk sentence until after I replied - delay in text making it to the BB?
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No. Just added that for clarification on what I was talking about.


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SD said:
The last couple days on the EPS run makes me very excited, PV sinking south southwest through Hudson Bay and the EPO ridge trying to poke northward toward the pole. I love it
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That certainly looks like a possible scenario. The LR models are pretty locked in as far as the pattern change is concerned. However, there are still details to sort out that could mean the difference between cold and very cold. Also, there is some concern as to where the trough axis sets up. This would be the difference between cold and dry vs. cold with wintry chances. These differences will probably not be agreed upon until sometime next week.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
GaWx said:
The model consensus for a couple of days has shown the coldest relative to normal during the 11-15 to be in the southern US with well below normal SE, near normal northern tier, and above normal in Canada. That would be one of the most favorable setups for a winter storm in the SE US if only the upper trough would be centered near the Mississippi and thus allow moisture to overrun the cold/~WSW 500 mb flow.
Click to expand...

Yep, that's what it takes for a big dog miller A
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My post..LOL. I was going to leave it but cant. Its too ridiculous without enough info. All i had to say was, Oh yeah! big dog miller A..come on timing. Sorry, how embarrassing.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
SD said:
The last couple days on the EPS run makes me very excited, PV sinking south southwest through Hudson Bay and the EPO ridge trying to poke northward toward the pole. I love it
Click to expand...

That certainly looks like a possible scenario. The LR models are pretty locked in as far as the pattern change is concerned. However, there are still details to sort out that could mean the difference between cold and very cold. Also, there is some concern as to where the trough axis sets up. This would be the difference between cold and dry vs. cold with wintry chances. These differences will probably not be agreed upon until sometime next week.
Click to expand...
Yep I have some concern about the trough axis being too far East. That said it always seems like the models slowly inch the trough axis west in time when these epo ridges show

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Well this has been entertainment reading to catch up. Lol

As usual some very good discussion, don't think I'll ever have the time to fully learn all the aspects of long range forecasting.

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