Gonna have watch early next week for a possible severe threat
DESPITE SOME RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY...THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
CONSISTENT IN A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN...HOWEVER...WITH THE GFS A BIT
SLOWER/FARTHER WEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EXPECTED...ADDING ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT
AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. TYPICALLY...SUCH VARIABILITY ON DAY 5
WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE AREAL DELINEATION OF A SEVERE RISK AREA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...
A MODESTLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...HAVE OPTED TO OUTLINE A FOCUSED 15 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR
MONDAY WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTS. SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT
TO THE RISK AREA AND PROBABILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT
OUTLOOKS.
A surface low will likely form near the upper Texas coast on Monday
and shift rapidly northeast as the main short wave trof ejects out
of northern Mexico. A low level jet will develop across the
central Gulf coast states with 60+ surface dewpoints pushing into
south Alabama Monday afternoon. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the inland surge of higher dewpoints than the ECMWF, and its
convective parameters are higher with regards to CAPE and lifted
indices. The GFS model would produce a minimal threat of severe
storms to the far southern counties Monday afternoon and evening,
but will hold off mentioning severe wording in any of our hazard
products due to more stable ECMWF model.
I imagine that it will be to stable in my neck of the woods. Looks like we will have our first true CAD rain event.Bama Ravens link said:BMX thoughts from forecast discussion:
A surface low will likely form near the upper Texas coast on Monday
and shift rapidly northeast as the main short wave trof ejects out
of northern Mexico. A low level jet will develop across the
central Gulf coast states with 60+ surface dewpoints pushing into
south Alabama Monday afternoon. The GFS model is more aggressive
with the inland surge of higher dewpoints than the ECMWF, and its
convective parameters are higher with regards to CAPE and lifted
indices. The GFS model would produce a minimal threat of severe
storms to the far southern counties Monday afternoon and evening,
but will hold off mentioning severe wording in any of our hazard
products due to more stable ECMWF model.
If so I'll be chasing it.WeatherDORK77 link said:Anybody hear about a tornado in Dawsonville this week?
I am not aware of any confirmation of it at this time... but off topic... I love your avatar... LOLWeatherDORK77 link said:Anybody hear about a tornado in Dawsonville this week?