With the consensus showing for the SE US near normal when averaging days 1-10 (warmer more SE, cooler more NW), and warmer than normal 11-15 all despite much colder much of the country to our NW including the MW, the current projections for Dec as a whole reflect a SE ridge pattern with warmest relative to normal there vs most of the rest of the country with above normal most likely nearer to the coast and near normal further NW in the SE. I looked at Dec's with a similar pattern and found these 9 with ENSO noted:
Here's how the nine averaged for Dec.: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.344.13.47.44.prcp.png
1897 (WLN), 1916 (SLN), 1919 (WEN), 1924 (WLN), 1926 (NP), 1961 (NN), 1983 (WLN), 2008 (WLN), 2013 (NN)
So, interestingly enough, an impressive 6 of these 9 (bolded) were near our current ENSO (NN/WLN). I'll concentrate on those 6. How were those 6 for the rest of winter?
Temp's:
Jan: 1898 was mild; 1925 was near normal to mild; 2009 was near normal; 1962, 1984, and 2014 were cold...so a crapshoot
Feb: 1925 and 1962 were mild; 1984, 2009, and 2014 were near normal; 1898 was cold..again a crapshoot
So, for Jan-Feb: 1925 remained mild while 1984/2014 didn't have another mild month. 1962 & 1898 were on a rollercoaster. 2009 was near normal. So, a crapshoot!
Wintry precip at ATL for these 6:
Dec: 1961 had 1" SN. No other Dec had sig wintry precip.
Jan: 1898 had 0.8" SN. 1962 was a great month with a 3.5" SN followed by a major ZR (yes, it was neutral negative ENSO) just 10 days later! 2014 had the memorable snowjam from 2.6" of SN. The other three had no measurable. Overall though, the 6 Jan's averaged more wintry than average with 1.15" of SN & a major ZR. Two of the three cold Jan's were well above the average of wintry precip.
Feb.: 1984 had 1.3" of SN. 2014 had a major ZR on the south and east sides (yes, during the other NN ENSO) with 2" of IP/SN though 3"+ was measured on the northside. The other 4 had no measurable though the 6 Feb.'s averaged more wintry than normal.
Mar: 2009 had a 4.2" SN. Though the other 5 had no sig wintry, the 6 averaged 0.7", which is nearly double the longterm avg.
Dec-Mar (normal SN/IP is 2"): 1897-8 had 0.8" SN (below normal). 1924-5 had 0". 1961-2 was a banner season with 4.5" of SN & a major ZR. 1983-4 had 1.3" of SN (not terrible but below normal). 2008-9 had 4.2" of SN, making it well above normal. 2013-4 was the other banner year with 4.6" of SN/IP & a major ZR. So, the two NN ENSO's were the two banner winters for ZR/IP. Coincidence? I don't know.
So, of the 6, only one was a shutout. Two had below normal SN. But three had well above normal SN/IP and 2 of those 3 also had a major ZR. The 6 averaged 2.6" of SN/IP (vs normal of 2") with 1/3 of them having a major ZR (vs 1 every 4.5 years). So, overall good enough stats to at least give ATL and much of the SE US hope.
Here's how the nine averaged for Dec.: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.344.13.47.44.prcp.png
1897 (WLN), 1916 (SLN), 1919 (WEN), 1924 (WLN), 1926 (NP), 1961 (NN), 1983 (WLN), 2008 (WLN), 2013 (NN)
So, interestingly enough, an impressive 6 of these 9 (bolded) were near our current ENSO (NN/WLN). I'll concentrate on those 6. How were those 6 for the rest of winter?
Temp's:
Jan: 1898 was mild; 1925 was near normal to mild; 2009 was near normal; 1962, 1984, and 2014 were cold...so a crapshoot
Feb: 1925 and 1962 were mild; 1984, 2009, and 2014 were near normal; 1898 was cold..again a crapshoot
So, for Jan-Feb: 1925 remained mild while 1984/2014 didn't have another mild month. 1962 & 1898 were on a rollercoaster. 2009 was near normal. So, a crapshoot!
Wintry precip at ATL for these 6:
Dec: 1961 had 1" SN. No other Dec had sig wintry precip.
Jan: 1898 had 0.8" SN. 1962 was a great month with a 3.5" SN followed by a major ZR (yes, it was neutral negative ENSO) just 10 days later! 2014 had the memorable snowjam from 2.6" of SN. The other three had no measurable. Overall though, the 6 Jan's averaged more wintry than average with 1.15" of SN & a major ZR. Two of the three cold Jan's were well above the average of wintry precip.
Feb.: 1984 had 1.3" of SN. 2014 had a major ZR on the south and east sides (yes, during the other NN ENSO) with 2" of IP/SN though 3"+ was measured on the northside. The other 4 had no measurable though the 6 Feb.'s averaged more wintry than normal.
Mar: 2009 had a 4.2" SN. Though the other 5 had no sig wintry, the 6 averaged 0.7", which is nearly double the longterm avg.
Dec-Mar (normal SN/IP is 2"): 1897-8 had 0.8" SN (below normal). 1924-5 had 0". 1961-2 was a banner season with 4.5" of SN & a major ZR. 1983-4 had 1.3" of SN (not terrible but below normal). 2008-9 had 4.2" of SN, making it well above normal. 2013-4 was the other banner year with 4.6" of SN/IP & a major ZR. So, the two NN ENSO's were the two banner winters for ZR/IP. Coincidence? I don't know.
So, of the 6, only one was a shutout. Two had below normal SN. But three had well above normal SN/IP and 2 of those 3 also had a major ZR. The 6 averaged 2.6" of SN/IP (vs normal of 2") with 1/3 of them having a major ZR (vs 1 every 4.5 years). So, overall good enough stats to at least give ATL and much of the SE US hope.