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Wintry Winter 2017-18 discussion

He did say his thoughts on the AO/NAO remaining mostly positive the first 1/2 to 2/3 of winter is due mostly to persistence. Again, seems like we're either going to the extreme of things staying the same forever, or it switches to the other end of the extreme to even things out.
 
Fishel going with 3 to 6 inches of snow here. Said 45% of past La Ninas in last 20 years had that range, while 33% had more than 6 inches. So the odds are actually in our favor here. Oh, and some of the biggest single storms we had in the last 20 years were during La Nina, including the January 2000 Carolina Crusher.
 
Charlotte experienced some hellacious ice storms in several of the winter analogs Allan(RaleighWx) noted in his winter forecast. An inch of liquid fell during the Christmas Day 1962 ice storm.
 
Eric said:
Charlotte experienced some hellacious ice storms in several of the winter analogs Allan(RaleighWx) noted in his winter forecast. An inch of liquid fell during the Christmas Day 1962 ice storm.
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The ice storm that knocked down the wral tower was during a la niña, too.
 
Keep in mind since early 1970s for D,J,F we have only had 13 of those winters with negative nao. A few barely qualified almost neutral. You go back and look since late 1800s you'll see we end up with + nao winters by atleast a 3 almost 4 to 1 margin over time.
 
NCSNOW said:
Keep in mind since early 1970s for D,J,F we have only had 13 of those winters with negative nao. A few barely qualified almost neutral. You go back and look since late 1800s you'll see we end up with + nao winters by atleast a 3 almost 4 to 1 margin over time.
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This is a very good point and admittedly needs to be considered. I wasn't thinking about the frequency of -NAO So, -NAO has been at a significant disadvantage to +NAO frequencywise since the early 70s. Also, +PNA winters since the early 70s have been more frequent than -PNA winters. I hadn't realized that either. So, the correlation to +PNA is not as high when that is realized. -AO and -EPO, however, have had about the same frequency as +AO/+EPO since the early 70s. So, I don't think those two need an adjustment.
 
GaWx said:
This is a very good point and admittedly needs to be considered. I wasn't thinking about the frequency of -NAO So, -NAO has been at a significant disadvantage to +NAO frequencywise since the early 70s. Also, +PNA winters since the early 70s have been more frequent than -PNA winters. I hadn't realized that either. So, the correlation to +PNA is not as high when that is realized. -AO and -EPO, however, have had about the same frequency as +AO/+EPO since the early 70s. So, I don't think those two need an adjustment.
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Wow!! Between you and Webb lol.
 
Those two need to team up and work off each other like Eric Andre and Hannibal Burress... create some innovative weather forecasting insights..
 
Larry Cosgrove is going for a mild SE winter with much warmer than normal Dec-Jan and warmer than normal Feb. He's also going with well below normal snowfall. He's assuming cold neutral to weak La Nina ENSO. For comparison, last winter he went much warmer than normal Dec., warmer than normal Jan, and a little colder than normal Feb.
 
The Carolina Crusher happened during a winter with one of the strongest Ninas on record. So there's always hope.
 
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The even more impressive blizzard of early March 1927 came off the warmest February on record (until last year) in a -ENSO regime... For many in the southeastern US, it's actually still the warmest February on record. Not to mention this storm took a very unusual track for a very large winter storm in NC, originated as a hybrid Alberta Clipper that came east-southeastward across the Appalachians. Yes, there's definitely hope lol we need to take advantage of every opportunity we get because they're becoming increasingly less frequent w/ time as the bgd climate state continues to warm.
Screen Shot 2017-10-31 at 1.12.16 PM.png

March 1-3 1927 NC Snowmap .png
 
Since we are talking about historic snowstorms.. we can dream..
1775 December 23 - 25 GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
In Western South Carolina on the Reedy River, it snowed without stopping for 30 hours, covering the ground about 2 feet deep. Near Winston-Salem, the snow was one and a half feet deep. In Georgia it was said to be generally 18 inches deep. Troops taking part in the Revolutionary War campaigns in the area marched in snow for up to 7 days.
 
As I mentioned earlier this Fall, this will be a winter with plenty of wedges and back-door cold fronts. If you like ice storms, this could be your winter. As we all know, it will come down to the amount of blocking and temps in the source region. Seeing the north get cold this early is a positive sign.
 
The WeatherBell Pioneer model has a chilly winter for the SE US with ~-1 to -1.5 F colder than normal, which is way colder than what JB has. I hope JB doesn't cover his butt if the winter were to end up cold by saying "even though I was warm, the Pioneer was cold blah blah blah...." to try to get partial credit.
 
I saw the map. It looks good, but I am a little skeptical. If other more reliable models get on board, then I will feel better.
 
eee076f5553481b464f9446a19782f46.jpg



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