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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

OTD in 1898...

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Amazingly, the Portland Gale of November 1898 dropped accumulating snow all the way down into central NC. Chatham, Wake, and Franklin counties reported a dusting-1" of snow in this storm...
November 25-26 1898 NC Snowmap.png
 
Definitely headed in the right direction. If this pattern materializes, then we will have a great start to winter. January of 1977 was cold, but it was also very suppressed. I can remember snow in Miami that year. January of 2003 was the year that a clipper dropped 8.5 inches of snow here due to incredible ratios. Let's not forget the Christmas snow in 2010. We all know what happened in March of 1960. I would say that the projected pattern would deliver the goods. Now, all we have to do is keep that look until verification time.
 
As I alluded to another poster this morning, if this initial surge of cold air were to be directed into the western US or Rockies, we could be looking at a pretty good shot for some severe weather anywhere from the south-central Plains, lower-mid Mississippi Valley to Dixie Alley on the leading edge of this arctic air & this is exactly what the GFS is advertising by day 8-9. It's pretty normal for a big Colorado Low/Panhandle Hook storm to occur during the transition period between these major regimes and I wouldn't be shocked if that's the first major storm system that we have to contend with later next week...
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Cad Wedge NC said:
Definitely headed in the right direction. If this pattern materializes, then we will have a great start to winter. January of 1977 was cold, but it was also very suppressed. I can remember snow in Miami that year. January of 2003 was the year that a clipper dropped 8.5 inches of snow here due to incredible ratios. Let's not forget the Christmas snow in 2010. We all know what happened in March of 1960. I would say that the projected pattern would deliver the goods. Now, all we have to do is keep that look until verification time.
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january 1977 was a damn great winter here west tn...... we got 5 nice big snows that winter... almost one per week... kind remind me of winter 85 almost in snow totals whole winter
 
Webberweather53 said:
As I alluded to another poster this morning, if this initial surge of cold air were to be directed into the western US or Rockies, we could be looking at a pretty good shot for some severe weather anywhere from the south-central Plains, lower-mid Mississippi Valley to Dixie Alley on the leading edge of this arctic air & this is exactly what the GFS is advertising by day 8-9. It's pretty normal for a big Colorado Low/Panhandle Hook storm to occur during the transition period between these major regimes and I wouldn't be shocked if that's the first major storm system that we have to contend with later next week...
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that was me you eluded to webber... yes i notice on that run... could be a big severe event setting up put ahead big pattern change
 
The 0Z GEFS is predicting for 12/10
that the PNA will approach +1, the AO -3, and the NAO -1. Since 2000, I have found only 4 periods during DJF with this or near this combo (SE wx noted):

- part of Jan of 2016 (nothing notable)
- good portion of Jan-Feb 2010 (great cold/wintry period overall)
- early Dec of 2002 (cold and around time of devastating Carolina icestorm)
- late Dec of 2000 (quite cold with some wintry) (Dec of 2000 is a top analog as mentioned)
 
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Larry,
Thanks for starting the thread.
Larry and Webb and WeatherWatch and a few others,
Y'all are starting to give an old North Fla boy some shivers ... ;)
Really enjoying the info.
Wish I had more to contribute at this point than a "Thanks", but it's heartfelt!
Best!
Phil
 
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GaWx said:
The 0Z GEFS is predicting for 12/10
that the PNA will approach +1, the AO -3, and the NAO -1. Since 2000, I have found only 4 periods during DJF with this or near this combo (SE wx noted):

- part of Jan of 2016 (nothing notable)
- good portion of Jan-Feb 2010 (great cold/wintry period overall)
- early Dec of 2002 (cold and around time of devastating Carolina icestorm)
- late Dec of 2000 (quite cold with some wintry) (Dec of 2000 is a top analog as mentioned)
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2000, 2002, 2010 all had significant snows across central AL during those periods.

Right before the one in 2000, the F4 hit Tuscaloosa.
 
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Lord,
There's something wrong with this, unless ...

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh216-240.gif


... a pattern change is coming ... :eek:
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Definitely headed in the right direction. If this pattern materializes, then we will have a great start to winter. January of 1977 was cold, but it was also very suppressed. I can remember snow in Miami that year. January of 2003 was the year that a clipper dropped 8.5 inches of snow here due to incredible ratios. Let's not forget the Christmas snow in 2010. We all know what happened in March of 1960. I would say that the projected pattern would deliver the goods. Now, all we have to do is keep that look until verification time.
Click to expand...
I think me and you will get a MAJOR icestorm this winter. Just as bad or worse than Dec 2002 and 2005. Another area to watch is north Mississippi and western Tenn.
 
JHS said:
I think me and you will get a MAJOR icestorm this winter. Just as bad or worse than Dec 2002 and 2005. Another area to watch is north Mississippi and western Tenn.
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as much as i love snowstorms, i also love good icestorms as well. Icestorms will be something to watch for sure.
 
tennessee storm said:
january 1977 was a damn great winter here west tn...... we got 5 nice big snows that winter... almost one per week... kind remind me of winter 85 almost in snow totals whole winter
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I consider my "hometown" Memphis/Germantown (lived there from '77 thru '86) - great memories
I recall moving to Memphis during the harsh winter of 1977 - I was out of school for 2 weeks - my mother nearly went insane LOL (I was in elementary school)
The winter of 1984/85 was EPIC for the Memphis metro/Mid-South - snow on the ground for WEEKS - out of school for 3+ weeks! (almost the entire month of January)
 
JHS said:
I think me and you will get a MAJOR icestorm this winter. Just as bad or worse than Dec 2002 and 2005. Another area to watch is north Mississippi and western Tenn.
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Let’s just hope if we do get one in North MS it isn’t a ‘94 redo.
 
12z EPS control has a ZR/sleet to a snow event for most of the SE from the 6th to the 8th or so time period. The GFS has been hinting at something wintry as well at some point during the upcoming cold pattern.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
 
The 0Z 11/26/17 GEFS is predicting for 12/10 that the PNA will approach +1, the AO -3, and the NAO -1. Since 1950, I have found 16 periods during DJF with at least this or getting near this combo (SE wx noted):

- 1/9-16/2016: nothing notable but much colder 1/18-19

- good portion of Jan-Feb 2010: great cold/wintry period overall

- 2/27-8/2005: cold; SN parts of NC

- early Dec of 2002: cold; around time of devastating Carolina icestorm as well as SN C AL (per arcc)

- late Dec 2001: major SE SN few days later

- late Dec of 2000: quite cold/wintry; 2000 is a top analog as mentioned

- 1/9-12/1997: cold; major wintry NC

- Parts of 12/1995: nothing notable

- 2/6-9/1986: nothing notable though turned much colder 2/11-15

- mid Jan 1985: great Arctic plunge/some wintry

- mid Jan 1977: just preceding very cold outbreak and very far south SN (to S FL!)

- Feb 1968: very cold month/wintry

- Mid Feb 1964: cold; some wintry including Asheville SN

- Mid Dec 1963: very cold

- 1/20-22/1963: turned colder and just preceded extreme cold including -3 KATL 1/24/63; this is 2nd best analog winter overall as mentioned

- 12/23-25/1950: nothing notable
 
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WeatherWatch said:
12z EPS control has a ZR/sleet to a snow event for most of the SE from the 6th to the 8th or so time period. The GFS has been hinting at something wintry as well at some point during the upcoming cold pattern.

Sent from my SM-J327T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yep, can get big storms during pattern changes, usually liquid though, as pattern changes to cold.
 
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