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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Holy cow, there's a lot of wishing going on ... let's wait and see before there is a need for Jon to start dispensing heart meds ...
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yep, can get big storms during pattern changes, usually liquid though, as pattern changes to cold.
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The precip starts as a very cold rain, then changing to ZR/sleet then snow as the colder air progresses southward.

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pcbjr said:
Holy cow, there's a lot of wishing going on ... let's wait and see before there is a need for Jon to start dispensing heart meds ...
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Phil!!!! No one on this board would ever wishcast or would they


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whatalife said:
Phil!!!! No one on this board would ever wishcast or would they


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I never said "wishcast" ;); only "wishing" (wishing with fervor; and waiting here to see if the fervor is deserved or if it's the recipe for a board-wide Rx dispensary ... LOL) ... :confused:
 
pcbjr said:
I never said "wishcast" ;); only "wishing" (wishing with fervor; and waiting here to see if the fervor is deserved or if it's the recipe for a board-wide Rx dispensary ... LOL) ... :confused:
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I know...I just thought I’d throw that in for good measure


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pcbjr said:
I never said "wishcast" ;); only "wishing" (wishing with fervor; and waiting here to see if the fervor is deserved or if it's the recipe for a board-wide Rx dispensary ... LOL) ... :confused:
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Phil,
I'm about as confident as I can possibly be 10 days out for a change to much colder for much of the E and central US based on VERY consistent and near 100% agreement in the modeling moving it closer with practically each and every run. Model consensus like this for a change 10 days out for several days of runs is rarely stronger than this. The consistency of models predicting a strong -AO/-NAO/+PNA is a factor in the confidence.

The parts that can't be predicted well at this stage is how severe, if severe at all, the cold will get in the SE US, how long it will last, and whether or not a good portion (or any) of the SE US will get significant wintry precip associated with this colder pattern. However, QBO/ENSO/AO analogs combined with the look of the models tell me that a long and severe cold period is quite possible in Dec after the first week.

Predicting wintry precip is always very difficult thus far out especially. I hardly pay any attention to modeled storms this far out. The chance of at least light wintry precip at some point in at least some of the favored areas is high, however, based on the history of cold outbreaks like this. Of course, that could end up meaning just some of the mountains and nothing major but that's about the worst case scenario.
 
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whatalife said:
I know...I just thought I’d throw that in for good measure

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GaWx said:
Phil,
I'm about as confident as I can possibly be 10 days out for a change to much colder for much of the E and central US based on VERY consistent and near 100% agreement in the modeling moving it closer with practically each and every run. Model consensus like this for a change 10 days out for several days of runs is rarely stronger than this. The consistency of models predicting a strong -AO/-NAO/+PNA is a factor in the confidence.

The part that can't be predicted well at all is whether or not a good portion (or any) of the SE US will get significant wintry precip associated with this colder pattern. The chance of at least light wintry precip at some point in favored areas is high, however.
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Guys,
Please understand - I meant nothing negative. Just an observation about emotions.
All on board here. Heck, yours truly has been pushing and posting about a change to cold for weeks. I'll see something accumulate someday (maybe even this year again); but I've got no horse in this race (yet), and I'm really, really hoping that whatever happens in Gainesville this season, folks north of here get a good slam not once but 3, 4 or 5 times this winter.
My point was ... and is ... don't get hyped ... yet.
Wish I could do this vocally, since the thought probably does not come across well in this format. :oops:
Best!
Phil
 
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Exactly. Been burned too much in recent years to get hopes up on 300hr projections. I'm not diving into the deep end till we see something notable materialize in hr 192 or closer. Until then, I am hedging on dumpster fire December. At least then I won't be AS disappointed when nothing wintry happens.
 
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gfs_T2m_us_46.png
New gfs COLD!!! Nice blocking, and exciting times ahead
 
So the GFS is the only model showing this blockbuster potential pattern? Or because we are at the 11-15 day period on GFS , the Euro can't pick it up yet?
 
I’m starting to get excited about middle and late December with what everyone is posting. Would love to get some snow sometime next month or at least have something to track!
 
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