About to be a bit nipply out!
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Pattern February Discussion
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whatalife
Moderator
18z GEFS look nice and active 10-15...LOL!
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I'm sure it won't change between now and then
DLI4SCwx
Member
Things possibly getting interesting around the timeframe I was expecting. About time, more and more like Spring here everyday. Just hope it comes to fruition! Fab Feb ftw!
Flo
Member
ATLwxfan
Member
Something interesting around hour 300. Goofy is stupid cold at the end of the run.
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You aren't starting a ruckus, keep posting you're thoughts Phil.... they are greatly appreciated. Besides it's nice having an attorney on here never know when that might come in handy
Lol
lol you must have checked out the board of doom before coming here. the eps isn't that bad not to mention it's been all over the place post day 10
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^Plus Mack is a natural pessimist at least IMO although he has ended up being correct on a number of occasions. Blind squirrel?
Latest MJO two week forecast consensus remains rather favorable with it headed for the circle within the next couple of days. This is followed by a counterclockwise turn taking it in the general direction of the left side of the circle or just outside by the end of the two week forecast, which would then be a favorable for SE cold MJO fwiw.
Latest GEFS NAO remains moderately positive.
Latest GEFS AO day 14 has turned back moderately negative. However, the GEFS day 14 bias averaged over the last four months has been a ridiculously bad ~-1.00! So, we need an even more negative AO day 14 forecast before I'd start leaning toward it going negative then. Regardless, today's more -AO day 14 forecast is moderately encouraging. The 0Z EPS' AO forecast late in week 2 is not as negative as yesterday but it still is negative. However, it has switched from yesterday's -NAO to a pretty neutral NAO in late week 2.
Latest GEFS PNA forecast remains moderately positive.
Latest MJO two week forecast consensus remains rather favorable with it headed for the circle within the next couple of days. This is followed by a counterclockwise turn taking it in the general direction of the left side of the circle or just outside by the end of the two week forecast, which would then be a favorable for SE cold MJO fwiw.
Latest GEFS NAO remains moderately positive.
Latest GEFS AO day 14 has turned back moderately negative. However, the GEFS day 14 bias averaged over the last four months has been a ridiculously bad ~-1.00! So, we need an even more negative AO day 14 forecast before I'd start leaning toward it going negative then. Regardless, today's more -AO day 14 forecast is moderately encouraging. The 0Z EPS' AO forecast late in week 2 is not as negative as yesterday but it still is negative. However, it has switched from yesterday's -NAO to a pretty neutral NAO in late week 2.
Latest GEFS PNA forecast remains moderately positive.
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One thing that I don't think can be debated is that the GFS suite has had a really bad cold bias in recent weeks in the E US. I mean awful! The Euro/EPS has been much better as a result. So, I'd advise we take future cold E US GEFS with a huge grain of salt when the EPS is not cold. Perhaps a good portion of this cold bias can be tied to its ridiculous -AO bias, which has averaged a whopping -1.0 at day 14 over the last four months as noted in my prior post!
ATLwxfan
Member
I promise you that my last name is not David!
GeorgiaGirl
Member
This run isn't very entertaining but IMO, it's more realistic than what I saw on 0z. On the 0z I saw a big cutter in the long range not change the pattern for some reason. On this one, it brings back the eastern trough, though it's not as sharp.
(although of course it doesn't last long for some reason)
(although of course it doesn't last long for some reason)
A low moving through North Florida and rain all the way to TN ?No thanks. Falling right in that sweet spot time-frame of FEB. :|
GeorgiaGirl
Member
There's a gulf disturbance right at the end of the run but since there's no strong eastern trough it causes an ice storm in the Carolinas and all rain elsewhere.
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