Pattern February Discussion

[Golferwhotries]

When Euro shows it, most take notice I do believe

 

[pcbjr]

MMW. It's a midwinter warming advertised on models. Big one if pans out, but no guarantee it effects us.

You have me stumped on that one (MMW) - but haven't we more or less been in a mid-winter warming since November by and large LOL (the 1st week or so of Jan notwithstanding)?

 

[Golferwhotries]

I will let SD or Shawn explain that more. It's good for cold weather that's sustainable instead of transient. If it sets up for us

 

[pcbjr]

I will let SD or Shawn explain that more. It's good for cold weather that's sustainable instead of transient. If it sets up for us

I love to learn. Looking forward to it! Really!!!

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I think the other word for it is strat warming. I can't really explain it except as a "cold dumping onto North America" event.

 

[pcbjr]

I think the other word for it is strat warming. I can't really explain it except as a "cold dumping onto North America" event.

That's what I asked - SSW - if so, the time lag is generally 14 -21 days (depending on many variables)

 

[Tarheel1]

MMW. It's a midwinter warming advertised on models. Big one if pans out, but no guarantee it effects us.

Same as a SSW! Sudden Stratospheric Warming??

 

[Golferwhotries]

I think the other word for it is strat warming. I can't really explain it except as a "cold dumping onto North America" event.

Actually georgiagirl, it's stronger than a ssw I think. They happen later on in winter when they happen.

 

[Tarheel1]

That's what I asked - SSW - if so, the time lag is generally 14 -21 days (depending on many variables)

In that case, someone fire up the Marvelous March thread! March 1960 redux incoming !! Delayed but not denied! Backloaded winter coming!

 

[Golferwhotries]

Nah they're not the same thing, minor SSWEs happen more frequently and involve significant slowing of the polar night jet while major SSWEs are less frequent and more intense and occur when the momentum imparted by upwelling tropospheric Rossby waves is enough to cause the polar night jet to reverse directions. Major events usually lead to more intense and prolonged high latitude blocking episodes and are more likely to result in colder wx in the US, although they don't guarantee it

 

[Golferwhotries]

Webberweather told me that earlier today

 

[pcbjr]

Webberweather told me that earlier today

If you understood what he said, you got it from the best source out there ....

 

[Golferwhotries]

That's what he told me and he knows his stuff for sure. I know most would like to see a sustainable period of cold weather.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

If you understood what he said, you got it from the best source out there ....

Yeah thats the problem (understanding what he's saying). He speaks in a language that I don't understand.

 

[pcbjr]

Well, with all the noise, we'll see what's happening tomorrow ---- if anything

 

[Tarheel1]

Time to start looking at the NAM for that clipper bomb !

 

[Snowdoc]

Time to start looking at the NAM for that clipper bomb !

Yeah never give up until you have a chance to be Nam'd!!

 

[ForsythSnow]

The storm around the Feb 5-6th period still looks interesting. However, it looks too strong on the 6Z and would become a severe weather event. If it trends southward more, it could get more interesting.

 

[EastAtlwx]

The storm around the Feb 5-6th period still looks interesting. However, it looks too strong on the 6Z and would become a severe weather event. If it trends southward more, it could get more interesting.

Yeah, definitely a improvement from 00z's Lakes cutter to 06z's app cutter. This is going to have to trend way south for me to be interested at my location because of my latitude and the tendency for models to trend north several hundred miles in the short to medium range..

 

[EastAtlwx]

It's the placement of the low on 06z that is the problem, not the strength.. in fact, the strength actually helps areas that do get the snow...