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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

NorthGaWinter4 said:
Changes to rain after ice. Temps are 34 in NGA with a ton of precip.
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CAD is always underdone on models. And yes, there's no cold air coming in, but air is so cold and dry fine the Arctic shot that comes in tomorrow, will be here on Sunday and when precip starts with temps in the upper 20s and DP's around 5, it ain't gonna get above freezing with mod/heavy precip, till afternoon, if at all! Also this cold shot is staying colder longer! I was supposed to hit 40s Sat and mid 40s on Sunday, now Saturday is in the 30s and Sunday is 41. So trending colder! Get timing right, qpf, temps as modeled = disaster! Should def keep monitoring! Heard there is no ensemble support though!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
CAD is always underdone on models. And yes, there's no cold air coming in, but air is so cold and dry fine the Arctic shot that comes in tomorrow, will be here on Sunday and when precip starts with temps in the upper 20s and DP's around 5, it ain't gonna get above freezing with mod/heavy precip, till afternoon, if at all! Also this cold shot is staying colder longer! I was supposed to hit 40s Sat and mid 40s on Sunday, now Saturday is in the 30s and Sunday is 41. So trending colder! Get timing right, qpf, temps as modeled = disaster! Should def keep monitoring! Heard there is no ensemble support though!?
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No there is. I believe it was Shawn who read wrong enesembles and they actually very good
 
This one may be real for the serious CAD favored areas like Northeast Georgia/Upstate South Carolina. It's when the pattern relaxes a bit so I do think this might actually occur. It'll likely also go to plain rain eventually, but when? Because it doesn't take much ice for damage to be done.

(let's try to wish this away truthfully)
 
Oh Lord! A thread. Okay I'm in. Been feeling like an ice storm is coming since fall..this may be it.
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
What did GEFS say
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I'd say at least as ominous, if not more so; even South of ATL on some members:

GEFSSE_prec_ptypens_114.png
 
Huh....I've been so busy following the current storm I wasn't even aware there was another legitimate threat on the horizon. I like to track one storm at a time, helps keep some form of sanity. lmao

I guess I'll keep one eye open to this starting with the 00z model suite tonight.
 
Jinxed it by starting this thread so early. Will keep an eye but not buying in till this looks solid 48hrs out IMBY.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
Huh....I've been so busy following the current storm I wasn't even aware there was another legitimate threat on the horizon. I like to track one storm at a time, helps keep some form of sanity. lmao

I guess I'll keep one eye open to this starting with the 00z model suite tonight.
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The idea is that, if precip can get in quick enough before the wedge departs (and its booking it), that some insitu wedge can get established for CAD zones. If you're outside optimal CAD zones, it won't last as long; but if you take a look at the Canadian that handles ZR better, it's very scary. I am waiting until 00z & 12z tomorrow before I start to take the Canadian seriously.
 
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