Pattern January thread part deux

[GaWx]

Though not nearly as cold as the 12Z EPS and the 18Z GFS, the 18Z GEFS is the coldest GEFS for the SE US in the 11-15 yet. It even subtly hints at a possible wintry event mainly for the upper SE 1/31-2/1 fwiw (not much).

I'm putting my money on the Falcons in the SB, and a sleet storm across here at the end of the month, and I like my chances :  Goofy sees the truth way off now...it's like magic! T

 Well. Tony, the 0Z GEFS is even colder than the 1Z GEFS for the 11-15 and is not too much warmer than the very cold 12Z EPS. The steady trend is continuing toward colder and colder. I've now seen enough runs to feel that a cold is likely to be dominant in the SE for 1/28-2/2+.
 Regarding wintry precip. though the EPS runs have been dry during the cold with dry 500 mb flow, the last two runs of the GEFS don't look dry during the cold. The 0Z GEFS suggests multiple opportunities for wintry mischief for at least the upper SE. More fun times ahead it seems!

 

[SD]

 

[Meteorologist1999]

COLD AND DRY PER EPS, BUT GEFS is a different story maybe Winter Wx for SE!!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

COLD AND DRY PER EPS, BUT GEFS is a different story maybe Winter Wx for SE!!

 

[Meteorologist1999]

Though not nearly as cold as the 12Z EPS and the 18Z GFS, the 18Z GEFS is the coldest GEFS for the SE US in the 11-15 yet. It even subtly hints at a possible wintry event mainly for the upper SE 1/31-2/1 fwiw (not much).

I'm putting my money on the Falcons in the SB, and a sleet storm across here at the end of the month, and I like my chances :  Goofy sees the truth way off now...it's like magic! T

 Well. Tony, the 0Z GEFS is even colder than the 1Z GEFS for the 11-15 and is not too much warmer than the very cold 12Z EPS. The steady trend is continuing toward colder and colder. I've now seen enough runs to feel that a cold is likely to be dominant in the SE for 1/28-2/2+.
 Regarding wintry precip. though the EPS runs have been dry during the cold with dry 500 mb flow, the last two runs of the GEFS don't look dry during the cold. The 0Z GEFS suggests multiple opportunities for wintry mischief for at least the upper SE. More fun times ahead it seems!

The EPS Runs only goes out to 240 hrs, which means most of the cold air will come after, and most of the moisture will too!! 

 

[Meteorologist1999]

fdvfvf

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Though not nearly as cold as the 12Z EPS and the 18Z GFS, the 18Z GEFS is the coldest GEFS for the SE US in the 11-15 yet. It even subtly hints at a possible wintry event mainly for the upper SE 1/31-2/1 fwiw (not much).

I'm putting my money on the Falcons in the SB, and a sleet storm across here at the end of the month, and I like my chances :  Goofy sees the truth way off now...it's like magic! T

Well, I am pulling for Atlanta as well, but they are under-dogs at this point. Hope the odds are better for a winter storm in the southeast than it is for the Falcons to win the SB.

 

[WilkesboroDude]

Alaska is set to go 50 degrees below zero. That's all I need to see that the Carolina's have no chance of wintry weather for the rest of the month. Need a weekly skip button if someone can fast forward 4 weeks.

 

[GaStorm]

Alaska is set to go 50 degrees below zero. That's all I need to see that the Carolina's have no chance of wintry weather for the rest of the month. Need a weekly skip button if someone can fast forward 4 weeks.

Why even bother posting then? I'm sure Alaska was plenty cold when we had our last shot of winter weather. It's not like it's going to just sit there for 4 weeks.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

It's got to be a little concerning that we are wasting the coldest time of the year with temps in the 60s and 70s doesn't it ?

 

[Tarheel1]

It's got to be a little concerning that we are wasting the coldest time of the year with temps in the 60s and 70s doesn't it ?

Not really , when Larrys stats show the best snows the Deep South ever see, are in February ! So don't worry yourself too much in Dohllonega and Carrollton, it never snows anyway!

 

[SoutheastRidge]

It's got to be a little concerning that we are wasting the coldest time of the year with temps in the 60s and 70s doesn't it ?

Not really , when Larrys stats show the best snows the Deep South ever see, are in February ! So don't worry yourself too much in Dohllonega and Carrollton, it never snows anyway!

Yeah it can snow in February but it also usually melts faster too with the higher Sun angle. Give me a snowstorm in January anyday over Feb. Fortunately we had 2-3" of snow earlier this month.

 

[Storm5]

I'll take snow regardless of the month. It's rare around the SE . If it comes in December ,great . If it comes in march, great

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

After a snow, I'm ready for it to melt within 2 days. I have a Hellacious driveway. I like the model watching and actual event happening.

 

[GaStorm]

It's got to be a little concerning that we are wasting the coldest time of the year with temps in the 60s and 70s doesn't it ?

Not really , when Larrys stats show the best snows the Deep South ever see, are in February ! So don't worry yourself too much in Dohllonega and Carrollton, it never snows anyway!

Yeah it can snow in February but it also usually melts faster too with the higher Sun angle. Give me a snowstorm in January anyday over Feb. Fortunately we had 2-3" of snow earlier this month.

While this is true we have had several good storms in February and March and no problems with sun angle at all. The late season storms also seem to bring more snow than ice which is a plus as well.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Not really , when Larrys stats show the best snows the Deep South ever see, are in February ! So don't worry yourself too much in Dohllonega and Carrollton, it never snows anyway!

Yeah it can snow in February but it also usually melts faster too with the higher Sun angle. Give me a snowstorm in January anyday over Feb. Fortunately we had 2-3" of snow earlier this month.

While this is true we have had several good storms in February and March and no problems with sun angle at all. The late season storms also seem to bring more snow than ice which is a plus as well.

If it snows after Feb 15 I almost always want it to snow at night especially if surface temps are marginal.

 

[SASQUATCH]

Troll heavy, this thread is.

 

[Shawn]

Troll heavy, this thread is.

We allow a little banter.  If it gets out of control or abusive, we will handle it.

 

[accu35]

12gfs looks good still, nice pattern change

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

The recent GFS's still have that gulf storm after the pattern change but it's so cold it gets suppressed and literally heads to the Caribbean islands...hmmm where have I seen this movie before. (It's still too far out for it to be very noteworthy but still)