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Pattern January Thread - The Final Chapter

Shawn

Shawn

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Hey everyone. January part two has reached 40 pages. Continue your January weather talk here. :)
 
On lunch break to read, and I'm the first on here lol!!
 
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6Z GFS is very close to something wintry around 174 hrs, still need a little west shift of the trough and a little more digging and interaction but something to watch
 
06z GFS, this looks more like it than 0z GFS. More interaction between the northern stream. This is somthing something to watch out for.
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0z Euro, good energy to work with and the northern stream is taping in.
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I thought the 00z euro looked pretty good...energy flying all over the place, so I'm sure we will see many different looks for sure, but it looks cold and multiple shots of it.
 
The last few days of this month has so much potential. After looking over the 06z GFS, it seems like there could be overrunning then a phase off of the coast of the Carolina's maybe. The moisture stays too far down in the Gulf, this is why we want to see some northern stream interaction.

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Please snow the weekend of the 5th. Taking my daughter to Great Wold Lodge for her bday. Would be awesome.
 
Fwiw, today's consensus MJO forecast at least suggests that it will go back into the circle by 1/27 and then quite possibly wind around counterclockwise into or near the left side of the circle as we get to late into the 1st week in Feb. So, from the MJO perspective, alone, there's at least a reason to think that a decent cold period COULD return to the SE US by late in the 11-15 day period. OTOH, warmth has been handily beating cold for the winter to date and the MJO is just one factor with only tendencies associated with it. It sure would be nice to get a period of sustained -AO/-NAO. Unfortunately, the GEFS mean isn't predicting either at this time. Then again, neither is anywhere close to being required to allow for the possibility of a major SE winter storm.
 
The GFS maybe at that point were it's finally getting the solution down more. Crunching those numbers! It may get better and better from here on out. We'll see what the 12z GFS will hold. How are we doing on the members?

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