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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

Brent said:
GFS is definitely northeast

Close but no cigar this run
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Nope steering goes kaput at 120 and it's just going to sit there until the westerlies blast it ots. For it to get farther west probably need a stronger height falls over the SE and more interaction with that area

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UKMET comes within a few miles of Hatteras

0000UTC 27.09.2017 96 34.9N 75.5W 946 75
1200UTC 27.09.2017 108 35.8N 75.0W 955 66
 
Ukmet :eek:

Screenshot_2017-09-22-23-15-08.png
 
Euro is west already at 48 hours

at 72 hours it looks like its gonna be very close to the OBX

over 100 miles west at 72 yikes

at 96 its about a degree east of Hatteras longtitude, still way west from previous runs
 
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Gets within 75 miles or so of Hatteras but should recurve here still significantly west of previous runs

ecmwf_z500_mslp_eus_7.png
 
Strike probabilities and all models with ensembles from Huffman.... notice official track is east I bet we see it shift west today
a45fc24827d6d78c71fe9c2be34855ec.jpg
c0199e0414fd39f101a74b4468b449ee.jpg


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06z gfs stalls right off coast before being kicked ots, with this look will not be surprised to see a little more west shift fortunately should be a cat 1 at best
f429068bb5428da45562f27d51ce5fff.jpg


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metwannabe said:
Strike probabilities and all models with ensembles from Huffman.... notice official track is east I bet we see it shift west today
a45fc24827d6d78c71fe9c2be34855ec.jpg
c0199e0414fd39f101a74b4468b449ee.jpg


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Click to expand...
Yeah, no denying that the OFC track is way too far east. They would have to be lying at 11 if they maintained their same statement of remaining in the model envelope while maintaining the same track. I expect a shift closer to OBX.
 
This could get interesting...
"The recent westward shifts in the forecast track make it more likely that Maria would avoid the cold wake and move over the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Since the environment may not be as hostile as the dynamical models are assuming, the NHC intensity forecast is a little above the intensity consensus for much of the forecast period."

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UKMET went a little east, close call but a miss, about 40-50 miles east of Hatteras

000UTC 27.09.2017 84 34.5N 74.3W 947 80
1200UTC 27.09.2017 96 35.3N 74.0W 944 76
0000UTC 28.09.2017 108 35.5N 73.1W 954 70

Strangely the CMC which has been a western model(with a landfall unlike other models) shifted way east and totally misses
 
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