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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

I am still not sure where she will ultimately go. She is still moving ME and was supposed to turn sharply to the NNW yesterday. Whenever she decides to turn will be key, as I feel it has been slow so far. The fur the further sw it goes, the higher the chance of a us hit or scrape.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I am still not sure where she will ultimately go. She is still moving ME and was supposed to turn sharply to the NNW yesterday. Whenever she decides to turn will be key, as I feel it has been slow so far. The fur the further sw it goes, the higher the chance of a us hit or scrape.
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If it makes it. Southwesterly shear is shreading Maria right now.
 
Slight lean west on the new cone.
144253_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
If that high holds on a little longer and the trough is a little slower anything could happen

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GFS sending a big cold shot down east of the Rockies as Maria exits stage right, that's usually a precursor to western Caribbean/GOM/BOC tropical cyclone development as the cold air masses late in the hurricane season lead to pressure rises over the continent and help localize upward motion over the adjacent and still very warm ocean...
 
Euro OTS with Maria (& still seems a bit overzealous w/ intensity, which could have long-term track implications), regardless here comes a big shot of arctic air plunging into the east-central US by day 6-7 with blocking encapsulating eastern North America practically on all sides... Going to feel a lot more like fall as we roll into October. Of course, as mentioned earlier, this airmass could help excite tropical activity over the Caribbean later down the road
ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png
 
The European continues to trend down w/ Jose's intensity in the short-medium range, and thus allows this ridge to Maria's north to build in more & more every run... Maria is also not intensifying as much as anticipated, and neither of these trends are helping its chances to go out to sea in a hurry, not sure if it will be enough to send her to the US but if these trends that have been ongoing for several days continue, this could get a lot more interesting for the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, and New England in subsequent runs
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in the real world it appears that maria has been just a bit east of due north for the last couple of hours......clearly placing it east at this time from any model projection.
 
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