Someone said the 12Z increased a severe threat for parts of IN TN KY IL any info? For friday storm.
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Severe Mid-late February into March Severe Weather Threat(s)
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
tennessee storm
Member
yep just was thinking the same thing eric... me being a big severe wx fan... seems like everything little thing could go wrong goes wrong...but course its good thing also... but im really liking the pattern going into this spring... we keep getting these troughs digging west... close to spring we get moisture return is going to increase... this could be a very active spring severe wx season
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A few key points in the aforementioned paper's abstract...
tennessee storm
Member
yeah spc mentioned that same thing for those areas in this morning 4 - 8 cast
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The setup doesn't look horrible, would be nice to have a bit more low level wind shear ,and the shear vectors look parallel to each other which argues for excessive training but there's plenty of time for these mesoscale features to be resolved... Probably worthy of a slight atm
tennessee storm
Member
yeah true flow in the graph looks bit meridonal... but its worth watching
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Spc put out a day 6 risk for Hoosier alley
Yalls boy, JB, put on Facebook : worst severe season since 2011 looming! " That's kind of scary!?
Can't disagree it looks like the next 2 weeks will bring quite a bit
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I think the systems right around the end of the month and first of March may provide the best threat with the SE ridge trying to flex and moist advection from the gulf not being a problem
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol its gonna bust now, he jinxed it. Tbh though this pattern does look great for severe wx the next few weeks with a classic NW-SE gradient across the US helping to instigate a storm track from the plains to the Lakes. Still can't entirely rule out one more wintry wx threats esp for the Appalachians, and while we have seen winter storms as late as early April in the Carolinas, climatology won't be on our side after the first week of March.
Stormlover
Member
valid 6PM Friday central
Looks kinda a meh down here. Maybe a little better chance up your way but even there it does not look impressive at the momentvalid 6PM Friday central
I wouldn't sleep on this one
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
GWO headed towards phase 1-2 within the next week or so.... Uh oh lol
"Tornado Frequency in the United States Related to Global Relative Angular Momentum"
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0289.1
"Tornado Frequency in the United States Related to Global Relative Angular Momentum"
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0289.1
pcbjr
Member
Not sure if this belongs in this thread (tangentially it probably does, at least), and consider the source - but interesting nonetheless -
pcbjr
Member
^
... and then this ...
... and then this ...
Closed upper low ! Those things are known for producing snow this time of year right ?^
... and then this ...