Early winter, early spring?
GaWx link said:For those hoping for a cold SE US Jan., it is better that Dec. be cold than warm because there is a decent correlation between Dec temps and Jan temps.
Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:
When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.
When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.
Any correlation with Feb, Larry? I.e., an actual colder winter in general. I'd almost rather have normal all the way to the end of March, than a cold Dec/Jan, then sudden spring onset, lol. At least one of my winters in the last 16 had a very cold late Nov/ Dec, and that was it for winter...don't need that....... And some good rains, I be happy with that, and take my chances with the cold air. Can't live without rain, and snow/sleet in Ga is kind of rare, in that it rarely happens all over, lol. But when it rains, it's usually all over, and most everybody wins..funny how that worksGaWx link said:For those hoping for a cold SE US Jan., it is better that Dec. be cold than warm because there is a decent correlation between Dec temps and Jan temps.
Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:
When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.
When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.
Any correlation with Feb, Larry? I.e., an actual colder winter in general. I'd almost rather have normal all the way to the end of March, than a cold Dec/Jan, then sudden spring onset, lol. At least one of my winters in the last 16 had a very cold late Nov/ Dec, and that was it for winter...don't need that....... And some good rains, I be happy with that, and take my chances with the cold air. Can't live without rain, and snow/sleet in Ga is kind of rare, in that it rarely happens all over, lol. But when it rains, it's usually all over, and most everybody wins..funny how that worksDsaur link said:[quote author=GaWx link=topic=3.msg133#msg133 date=1480795352]
For those hoping for a cold SE US Jan., it is better that Dec. be cold than warm because there is a decent correlation between Dec temps and Jan temps.
Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:
When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.
When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.
Yep, it's truly weird, Larry. Rain dump, drought, rain dump. It's not like I often get 5.1 in a few days, lol. The 18 inches in 2 weeks in Dec was what started this anomalous string of anomalys, lol. And I ask you, why can't I ever get 18 inches of sleet, or snow over a two week period? It's not like it's physically impossible....well, 18 inches of sleet might be rare, lol. Hard to imagine the contortions the atmosphere would have to make for 18 inches of sleet, lol. The Goldielocks effect gone mole crazy Just right, for days and days. Wow, that just made my list of things I'd like to see before I shuffle off this mortal coil. TGaWx link said:Yeah, Tony, sometimes wx works in mysterious ways. That's my way of saying I don't know. Might your moles somehow have something to do with this?
One thing I'll note is that the dry spell was during a climo relative dry part of the year. It really doesn't like to rain much in Oct in ATL outside of the rare Oct tropical cyclone big influence as you must know. Outside of El Nino, it doesn't typically rain much in Nov in ATL.
Yep, it's truly weird, Larry. Rain dump, drought, rain dump. It's not like I often get 5.1 in a few days, lol. The 18 inches in 2 weeks in Dec was what started this anomalous string of anomalys, lol. And I ask you, why can't I ever get 18 inches of sleet, or snow over a two week period? It's not like it's physically impossible....well, 18 inches of sleet might be rare, lol. Hard to imagine the contortions the atmosphere would have to make for 18 inches of sleet, lol. The Goldielocks effect gone mole crazy Just right, for days and days. Wow, that just made my list of things I'd like to see before I shuffle off this mortal coil. TDsaur link said:[quote author=GaWx link=topic=3.msg400#msg400 date=1481079784]
Yeah, Tony, sometimes wx works in mysterious ways. That's my way of saying I don't know. Might your moles somehow have something to do with this?
One thing I'll note is that the dry spell was during a climo relative dry part of the year. It really doesn't like to rain much in Oct in ATL outside of the rare Oct tropical cyclone big influence as you must know. Outside of El Nino, it doesn't typically rain much in Nov in ATL.
Dsaur link said:Hey, Shawn, good to see you!! Hope this is the winter SC sees something other than hot and dry If it comes thru me, it'll get to you, so here's hoping I get that elusive north central sled enabler Turns out I miscalculated my additions and I got over 5 inches of rain since it started back. Did the drought get you too? And how much did the turning on of the flow bring you? Tony
Dsaur link said:I just hope it rains all winter, I'm tired of dry. I'll always take too wet over too dry If it turns to ice I'll deal with it...I've cut down all the pines that can make the house, so I don't cringe as much..until one of those oaks near the house cracks a big limb... but if it's going be real cold at times, that lets sleet in the mix, and snow. Meteostar had me with some pretty good minus numbers out in lala. I'd love to see some of those actually happen. Haven't seen a bitter cold Christmas in a while. 12 or 16 on Christmas eve would be different, lol. Does it a lot at New Years Eve, but usually not Xmas. It's fighting climo, I guess. T
Starburst link said:[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=3.msg702#msg702 date=1481229090]
I just hope it rains all winter, I'm tired of dry. I'll always take too wet over too dry If it turns to ice I'll deal with it...I've cut down all the pines that can make the house, so I don't cringe as much..until one of those oaks near the house cracks a big limb... but if it's going be real cold at times, that lets sleet in the mix, and snow. Meteostar had me with some pretty good minus numbers out in lala. I'd love to see some of those actually happen. Haven't seen a bitter cold Christmas in a while. 12 or 16 on Christmas eve would be different, lol. Does it a lot at New Years Eve, but usually not Xmas. It's fighting climo, I guess. T