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Pattern Ah-choo April Discussion

I don't really like VERY hot weather, but cooler than average temps and lots of wind has appeared too late for my liking. It's mainly the wind. My ears were ringing after I spent around 25 minutes outside yesterday.
 
pcbjr said:
absolutely cannot get over a 67º at 1:00 PM on a sunny, cloudless April 7th ... :D
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It is absolutely a wonderful spring day! This weekend's combo of cool and Masters is awesome!

Gainesville, a city I've been closely following, often seems to be a good illustration of GFS biases (using MeteoStar at the airport station):

1) The 6Z GFS had their low only down to 50 whereas it actually got down to 44. So, it was a whopping 6 too warm on a run from just 6 hour ago!

2) That same run has their high for today at only 69. It was already 70 as of 2 PM vs the GFS prediction of only 68 for then. I'm guessing 72-3 for a high (still a beautiful day, regardless). Let's see what the high ends up being.

3) That run has their low tonight only down to 47! This is setting up to be a huge bust of 8-12 considering its warm bias there when there are good radiational cooling conditions and considering that its dewpoint is now 9 lower than the 6Z GFS prediction.
 
GaWx said:
It is absolutely a wonderful spring day! This weekend's combo of cool and Masters is awesome!

Gainesville, a city I've been closely following, often seems to be a good illustration of GFS biases (using MeteoStar at the airport station):

1) The 6Z GFS had their low only down to 50 whereas it actually got down to 44. So, it was a whopping 6 too warm on a run from just 6 hour ago!

2) That same run has their high for today at only 69. It was already 70 as of 2 PM vs the GFS prediction of only 68 for then. I'm guessing 72-3 for a high (still a beautiful day, regardless). Let's see what the high ends up being.

3) That run has their low tonight only down to 47! This is setting up to be a huge bust of 8-12 considering its warm bias there when there are good radiational cooling conditions and considering that its dewpoint is now 9 lower than the 6Z GFS prediction.
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still thinking 39º ... :p
 
olhausen said:
I'm under a freeze warning tonight for most likely the last time this season. I'm not quite sure I'll get to freezing though as I'm almost at 60 degrees right now. That's about 6 degrees warmer then what was forecasted.
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Good luck! It's gonna be a long while after this ... :mad:
 
Going way out on a limb (Larry) - but it's feelin' more like 38º might be in the air -- dry and the wind is subsiding ... we'll see!
 
pcbjr said:
Going way out on a limb (Larry) - but it's feelin' more like 38º might be in the air -- dry and the wind is subsiding ... we'll see!
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Well, let's see. The official high was 72. In typical fashion for the high
in these situations there, the GFS was 3 too cool. However, the GFS is typically way too warm on promising very radiational cooling nights like tonight. Moreover, it currently has the dewpoint 10 too high.

On two occasions during the mid March very cold shot with a similarly good radiation setup, it dropped 32 from the prior day's high. A few days later, it dropped a whopping 39. Nights are a bit shorter than a few weeks ago but that shouldn't be a big factor. The current dew point is way down at 26. The cold high center won't quite get down that far but the center will be down into AL allowing for very light winds late along with clear skies and early morning very low dewpoints that will likely not be any warmer than 32. With the three coldest lows for 4/8 being 34-35, I'm going to go further out on the limb than you with a drop of 37 to 35. The 12Z hrs has a low only down to 48! Gainesville is going to show off tonight and show who is King of Deep South US radiational cooling.
 
GaWx said:
Well, let's see. The official high was 72. In typical fashion for the high
in these situations there, the GFS was 3 too cool. However, the GFS is typically way too warm on promising very radiational cooling nights like tonight. Moreover, it currently has the dewpoint 10 too high.

On two occasions during the mid March very cold shot with a similarly good radiation setup, it dropped 32 from the prior day's high. A few days later, it dropped a whopping 39. Nights are a bit shorter than a few weeks ago but that shouldn't be a big factor. The current dew point is way down at 26. The cold high center won't quite get down that far but the center will be down into AL allowing for very light winds late along with clear skies and early morning very low dewpoints that will likely not be any warmer than 32. With the three coldest lows for 4/8 being 34-35, I'm going to go further out on the limb than you with a drop of 37 to 35. The 12Z hrs has a low only down to 48! Gainesville is going to show off tonight and show who is King of Deep South US radiational cooling.
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Larry - I'm with you but I don't want to get banned or castigated for being overly optimistic! :p I did tell she who keeps me sane (my wife) - 36º, and all she said was shi ... oops - I probably shouldn't finish that one!
We'll see and very nice analysis, as always, of course!
Best!
Phil
 
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PS Larry - the air is absolutely dead still and dry as a bone ... recipe? o_O
(rhetorical question ... LOL)
 
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Larry - one other thing before we head out to BallyHoo - get yourself situated on the members map!
 
pcbjr said:
Larry - one other thing before we head out to BallyHoo - get yourself situated on the members map!
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I have to go walking now. I took a quick look but wasn't sure what to do. I'll check it again later.
 
GaWx said:
I have to go walking now. I took a quick look but wasn't sure what to do. I'll check it again later.
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Enjoy! I'll get mine @ 5:30 or so tomorrow AM, as per usual.
Gonna ZZZZzzzz soon, so hopefully will catch your thoughts in the AM early, and hopefully - I'll need a light sweatshirt then ... :cool:
 
Wore a jacket for precautionary reasons but I found that it was less windy so it wasn't bad outside when I went walking! Tomorrow is going to have perfect April weather here.
 
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