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Pattern April Showers

Webberweather53 said:
I'm going to keep piling it on. Both the ocean and atmosphere are playing ball to give us an El Nino in a few-several months
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The big question that I'm wanting to know the answer to is what are the odds that we get enough of one to impact hurricane season this year? My thinking is that the transition helps inhibit some development later in the season when it peaks, but if it's slow and we hang around a very weak one or neutral, that it could be bad again.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The big question that I'm wanting to know the answer to is what are the odds that we get enough of one to impact hurricane season this year? My thinking is that the transition helps inhibit some development later in the season when it peaks, but if it's slow and we hang around a very weak one or neutral, that it could be bad again.
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It won't matter much whether we get one on paper or not. The large-scale circulation pattern is liable to be detrimental to a sizable portion of the Atlantic basin with the eastern Pacific more active than normal this year given the huge +PMM regime. El Ninos lead to above normal westerly wind shear in the Atlantic by producing upper level diabatically-induced outflow that is ventilated into the Atlantic, active northeastern Pacific hurricane seasons do the same thing just at a slightly different frequency. You don't need an El Nino to increase the westerly wind shear in a large part of the tropical Atlantic
 
ForsythSnow said:
The big question that I'm wanting to know the answer to is what are the odds that we get enough of one to impact hurricane season this year? My thinking is that the transition helps inhibit some development later in the season when it peaks, but if it's slow and we hang around a very weak one or neutral, that it could be bad again.
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There will be less than 10 named Atlantic storms , only 4 make hurricane status
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
While I was out walking in the evening I heard distant thunder and I noticed the thunderstorm cells popping to the south of me on the radar. It's interesting, as it's right at nighttime and they're still there, but I haven't had one really get me yet. I think it's coming, and I haven't showered yet (uh oh, but I'm getting in soon after I post this).

Weird thing is there was a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in the evening, but it long expired before all this started up.
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called it...was unluckily woken up by a loud thunderstorm again at about 1 am last night. I was half asleep thanks to that in the morning.
 
Today (4/25) is the anniversary of one of the freakiest wx events ever in KATL, the 1.5" snowfall of 4/25/1910! This is also their heaviest on record in April as well as their latest measurable snowfall on record.
Chattanooga had 4"! Just about as amazing is that the high at both cities was only 39! Pure craziness!
 
Ready to dry out.

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Oklahoma has yet to record a tornado this year ! Only 2 years in recorded history has Oklahoma went the entire month of April without a tornado.
 
Dallas is on track for one of the coldest Aprils ever, amazing lol, winter wasn't even that cold :p

the lack of tornadoes in Oklahoma is amazing too
 
April of 2018 is now projected to be the coldest April based on a national natural gas usage weighted heating degree day (HDD) basis since 1983 and colder than April of 1997 by about 10 HDDs! Keep in mind that the heart of the coldest anomalies was well north of the SE US as most in the SE will end up no colder than a few degrees colder than normal. So, I'm not saying it is the coldest April since 1983 in the SE. Actually, FL has been a little warmer than normal.
 
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Further to the above post regarding the projected April of 2018 anomalies as a whole:

Of active BB members, SERidge (~-6), Brent (~-5), and anyone near MEM (~-5) will end up the coldest. Nash. will be ~-4 while Birm. and Chat. will be ~-3. Most of NC will be near the -3 to -2 range while ATL/MCN/AUG into S AL will be ~-2. SAV/CHS will only be ~-1. Jax & GNV (Phil) will be near 0 while most of FL to the south will be +1 to +2.
 
Regarding the system tomorrow, from the SPC, who currently has most of GA and SC in a MRGNL Risk.

Forecast soundings suggest robust updrafts may develop immediately ahead of
the upper low and shear profiles will favor sustained rotating
updrafts. For these reasons have introduced 5% severe probs to
account for isolated supercell development possibly as early as mid
day over AL. This activity should spread into the Carolinas during
the evening hours. Hail and perhaps locally damaging winds are the
primary threats.
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vtrap90 said:
Regarding the system tomorrow, from the SPC, who currently has most of GA and SC in a MRGNL Risk.
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I have a hard time buying this type of system this time of year not producing some mode of severe weather. I would lean toward a wind/ hail threat. The tornado threat exists though as winds back later in the day. Especially across south central nc into central SC and east central Ga. Later in the evening across central nc its seemingly a wind or hail threat with a dry

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