Pattern January 2017 Discussion

[Shawn]

Remember, we are now entering our better months for Wintry weather.  Anything we could have gotten in December would have been a good bonus.  Happy to see a bit of support for blocking going into January.  Just wish we could get a good look within 3 days.  This 192 Hour + thing isn't working too well.

 

[Storm5]

one day the para will be right and we will score one of these winter storms it keeps throwing out
# 12z para

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[Storm5]

18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR

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[Storm5]

if your looking for a wintry threat the first week of January seems to be a window as all guidance has shown a wintry threat that week in some for or fashion

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[Tarheel1]

The 18z 7-9th threat looks legit! Been showing up for awhile! Just a few tweaks, and we are Rollin

 

[Brick Tamland]

18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR

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Fine with me. A lot of times we have had good snow storms just a few days after a big warm up. It was like that in January 2000. I actually think the big swings can be good for bigger storms.

 

[SD]

18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR

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What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[Tarheel1]

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR

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What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
That bathtub is gonna slosh so hard!

 

[Storm5]

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR

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What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
have you been in the christmas refreshments ?

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[whatalife]

[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg3286#msg3286 date=1482624088]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR

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What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
have you been in the christmas refreshments ?

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[/quote]
Trash it! #GFSismeaningless


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[SD]

[quote author=SD link=topic=60.msg3286#msg3286 date=1482624088]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3281#msg3281 date=1482619076]
18z has us pushing 70 around the new year with a strengthening WAR

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What is it good for....absolutely nothing

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[/quote]
have you been in the christmas refreshments ?

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[/quote]
That would be a negative

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[ATLwxfan]

You can't depend on the models past five days. All the indicies and patterns that people looked at from the past to give us a good chance at winter storms don't seem to apply here anymore. As long as temps stay normal and we still get some shots of below normal then we still have a chance at getting a winter storm. That's about all you can say for winter here. As long as we don't go way above normal and things stay active, we should have just as good of a chance as any other time to get a storm here. I think we score at least one good one in January.

I will say that I didn't think we'd torch on Xmas when the models hinted at it last week. They backed off a bit and we thought CAD would be more robust. Now we are back to full on torch. I'm not sure what to believe but the models may have had this right. So maybe in turn the GFS goes toward the colder solution again. Who knows.


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[Brick Tamland]

Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.

 

[Tarheel1]

Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.

I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South!

 

[Brick Tamland]

[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg3299#msg3299 date=1482633759]
Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.

I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South!
[/quote]

Nothing like that here. You mat not be in NC. No torch here.

 

[ATLwxfan]

[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=60.msg3301#msg3301 date=1482634452]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=60.msg3299#msg3299 date=1482633759]
Full on torch where? My forecast has temps mostly between 45 and 55 here the next 10 days.

I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South!
[/quote]

Nothing like that here. You mat not be in NC. No torch here.
[/quote]
You may flirt with 70° on Tuesday but probably nothing prolonged.


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[Brent]

this run of the GFS is amazing beyond 288 hours

But it's that far out...

 

[whatalife]

this run of the GFS is amazing beyond 288 hours

But it's that far out...

One can always hope...


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[Storm5]

merry Christmas from the 00z gfs single digits , yes please

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[accu35]

I'm really getting hyped up around the first week of January, GFS has been honking at possible storm, and very cold air. Oz GFS tonight was amazing with storm signal and very cold temps. Even tho it's 288 and beyond it been advertising for a while now. :wreath: