18z para has single digit lows January 2nd
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Pattern January 2017 Discussion
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
olhausen
Member
I hit 74 yesterday, a chilly 62 today and see another upper 70s next week! I'm gonna say a few days at 25-30 degrees above normal in late December, is a torch! We most likely won't have one high temp that much below normal this winter! Just life in the South!Tarheel1 link said:
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I've got a forecast high of 70 the next two days and my average high is 46 so I'm definitely torching the next few days.
Storm5 link said:
Yep, if that were to somehow verify (I'm sure none of us will hold our breath since the chances are low), it would bring stupid cold to N MS, N AL, and most of TN. (Example: 9F for BHM). ATL and RDU get a strong cold shot but not stupid cold (18F).
This reminds me about strength of a cold airmass and chances for a major SN/IP following it based on something I learned very recently. At ATL, for example, chances go up by about a factor of 3 for every 10 degrees colder the coldest of the airmass is. So, though still low, a single digit airmass has about a ten times higher chance for a major SN/IP to follow it vs a 20's airmass there.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...
GaWx link said:
Yep, if that were to somehow verify (I'm sure none of us will hold our breath since the chances are low), it would bring stupid cold to N MS, N AL, and most of TN. (Example: 9F for BHM). ATL and RDU get a strong cold shot but not stupid cold (18F).
This reminds me about strength of a cold airmass and chances for a major SN/IP following it based on something I learned very recently. At ATL, for example, chances go up by about a factor of 3 for every 10 degrees colder the coldest of the airmass is. So, though still low, a single digit airmass has about a ten times higher chance for a major SN/IP to follow it vs a 20's airmass there.
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Yep, 6z taketh away! Coldest temps are 20s, maybe an upper teen! A warmer run overall!
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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Tarheel1 link said:
Yep, if that were to somehow verify (I'm sure none of us will hold our breath since the chances are low), it would bring stupid cold to N MS, N AL, and most of TN. (Example: 9F for BHM). ATL and RDU get a strong cold shot but not stupid cold (18F). Yeah, not as cold but cold.
This reminds me about strength of a cold airmass and chances for a major SN/IP following it based on something I learned very recently. At ATL, for example, chances go up by about a factor of 3 for every 10 degrees colder the coldest of the airmass is. So, though still low, a single digit airmass has about a ten times higher chance for a major SN/IP to follow it vs a 20's airmass there.
[/quote]
Yep, 6z taketh away! Coldest temps are 20s, maybe an upper teen! A warmer run overall!
[/quote] yeah, not as cold but still cold. Models will shuffle around because it's the LR. I still feel pretty good for second week of January
maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......Webberweather53 link said:JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...
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maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......Storm5 link said:[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3326#msg3326 date=1482673014]
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...
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[/quote]
Lol! He saw the 0z and jumped all over the cold!! Now it's like, sike!!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
A couple of days near 70 and then average to below average temps the rest of the week is not a torch.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
And as long as it's below freezing and there is a chance of winter storms, then why does it matter if it's not in the teens or single digits?
tennessee storm
Member
I don't know what else you call it then.. 70 or above Christmas time no matter the length of it... its still a torch... models aren't handling the patter at all in long range... who knows.. may torch ; some longer... just sayingBrick Tamland link said:
whatalife
Moderator
maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......Storm5 link said:[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3326#msg3326 date=1482673014]
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...
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[/quote]
HAHA! Be nice...It's Christmas...
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I don't know what else you call it then.. 70 or above Christmas time no matter the length of it... its still a torch... models aren't handling the patter at all in long range... who knows.. may torch ; some longer... just sayingtennessee storm link said:
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One or two days doesn't make it a torch. That's a typical winter here. And we can have a couple of days at 70 and next week have a snow storm. That also happens quite often here.
Re: January 2017 Discussion
six years ago today I experienced my first white Christmas in alabama .....it was amazing .
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six years ago today I experienced my first white Christmas in alabama .....it was amazing .
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maybe by week four he will release a forecast that verifies ......whatalife link said:[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=60.msg3330#msg3330 date=1482674388]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=60.msg3326#msg3326 date=1482673014]
JB finally caves...
It will likely take the cold air the longest to reach the SE US...
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[/quote]
HAHA! Be nice...It's Christmas...
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[/quote]
All he wants for Christmas is a forecast that's right, or a new bathtub, his is broken!
N
NorthGaWinter
Guest
Weenie run incoming
merry Christmas from the 12z gfs
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whatalife
Moderator
Holy SMH!Storm5 link said:
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Holy SMH!whatalife link said:
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Classic track there! 2 waves! Felize Navidad Amigos!!
That 5-7th threat has been around for quite a few runs now!!!