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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat

Bsud said:
What's causing that HP to move out so fast. That to me just seems off, I'm not so sure it gets out of here that quick

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I think we will have lost our blocking by this point
 
Bsud said:
What's causing that HP to move out so fast. That to me just seems off, I'm not so sure it gets out of here that quick

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Oh, I've seen this play out a millions times in the past... although if it did indeed slow down in its retreat, I'd think east Tn and the Southern apps might see a bit more wintry mischief than is currently advertised.
 
We also have a decent snow pack now to help lock in CAD.


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ha, yeah, time for that damned snowpack to work for us regular snow slobs in the mid-south regions... lol
 
from my local NWS forecast:

"Sunday Night
Rain before 1am, then rain and snow between 1am and 2am, then rain after 2am. Low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%."

Apparently Mrx is thinking there is a 1 hour window where we might get snow, but then it's all rain after that. :)
 
MSnowAtl said:
Any EURO news?
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Euro definitely has a deeper Eastern US trough at the end of the run, colder.. as far as this particular storm, I'll await people with better map reading skills and access to premium sites.
 
best I can tell, Euro does throw my area with around an inch of snow on the front end of this storm.. I'm sure it all turns to rain though. Smokies get a nice half foot dump.
 
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Cold is retreating faster than precip coming in... ATL doesn't have any ice/snow on this Euro run. Like I said, my map reading skills suck though.
 
whamby said:
Cold is retreating faster than precip coming in... ATL doesn't have any ice/snow on this Euro run. Like I said, my map reading skills suck though.
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Read on another board that is still icy for north GA
 
Yeah I did too... hard to read free Euro maps on weather.us.. :) Think the mountains in N.Ga definitely looking at an ice threat... we shall see.
 
Euro has a teeny tiny mix/zr and goes to rain quickly. Not much to it, tbh. The high is well otw out by the time things can get going.
 
Here is the Euro ZR from the event:

okay.png
 
Majority of the 00z GEFS members match the idea of a front end < 0.25 inch event for most; then over to rain.

This isn't going to be a big deal, from current modeling, imo.

The Canadian, I am sure is the most bullsih on it's ensembles, I'll have to take a look and report back as meteocentre still does not have the ptypes out.
 
MRX just out with their latest AFD.. a little more bullish from them on wintry precip..

"Sunday Night
A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before midnight, then rain and snow likely between midnight and 4am, then rain likely after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%."

Interesting. I've seen similar set ups give up very little sleet, then all to rain, or situations where the cold lingers longer in our valleys, and we get some snow before finally switching over to rain. Remember something similar back in Feb 2015, where we were cold for about a week, then one of these snow/sleet to rain storms came and we had a good inch of snow/sleet before warming slowly to all rain. Incidentally a week or so later, we got a big snowstorm to end Fab Feb.
 
As dry and cold as this air is, I see no issue getting ice accretion for a bit. I’ve seen this dance many times. This one will be interesting to watch as well because let’s be honest...most storms we’ve had this winter have been oddly strange. Lol.


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