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Pattern June 29-July 2 Heat Wave

Iceagewhereartthou said:
Any heat wave stinks and no heatwaves are the way to go. However, if one has to experience a heat wave, those are the best kind to have.
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Agreed. I hate summer but this one up until this hasn't been that bad. A stretch that was too dry but temp wise it has been good.
 
FFC just issued Heat Advisories for their entire forecast area under 1400', with the exception of Lookout Mountain.

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Seems kind of a bust here in Homewood, unless my phone app is wrong. It's 94°, it hasn't been above 95 all day.
 
We only hit 98 after 100 yesterday and 99 on Wednesday. Going the right way here and most of the next week is actually below normal
 
_nevi said:
People on this forum cry about the percieved dearth of snowfall in the SE during winter ... getting rain in Texas during summer seems that way as well. Depending on how this summer goes, I may have to write off Texas as a cursed, forsaken state.
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Either way you slice it Texas has still gotten more snow and ice storms and longer lasting arctic air than anyone in the SE outside for the mountains the last 3 winters. No matter how little rain or how big a drought they are in in certain parts of the state or how many times they have hit 100 degrees over and over and over the last several summers they still seem to kick our butt in the the winter weather department here lately for whatever reason whether it is La Nina or not they have been taking it to us recently when it comes to winter weather. Hope it changes next winter but who knows. At least Nina is history. Will see.
 
_nevi said:
Maybe it's La Nina. Or maybe it's, more specifically, the oscillations associated with La Nina (-PNA and/or -PDO). I don't know what it is. But something definitely needs to change because the winter cold snaps are also a part of the curse: their potency (particularly Feb 21') compared to years prior, in conjunction with the heat and drought, makes things far more stressful for plant life across the state than in the past.

Now, the period from spring 21 through spring 22 was relatively nice (including both a nice summer rain-wise, with the greatest warm December the following winter). The cold snaps weren't as potent/focused on Texas.

The Jan 22' events brought more impact to the SE (namely the Carolinas), while Dec 22 had a more board-wide involement of cold anomalies. Early 23 (late Jan, early Feb) featured icy weather in Texas, but impacts were limited to a specific region (a triangle from Midland to DFW, then SW down I-35 to San Antonio),with elsewhere avoiding it.

It seems to be the tendency of specific amplified patterns in these recent years, with winter western trough/eastern ridging and then vice versa during summer. Both are of no benefit to Texas: instead, the ideal would be more zonal and/or elongated patterns (for example, a Bermuda pattern ridge extending through versus a Sonoran bubble ridge). As a bonus, the zonal patterns span the length of the South, so there's better chance of board wide impacts for stuff like winter storms (for you all that like them).
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It called Arctic Amplification that's weakening the jet-stream. Any zonal pattern will be brief.


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_nevi said:
Maybe it's La Nina. Or maybe it's, more specifically, the oscillations associated with La Nina (-PNA and/or -PDO). I don't know what it is. But something definitely needs to change because the winter cold snaps are also a part of the curse: their potency (particularly Feb 21') compared to years prior, in conjunction with the heat and drought, makes things far more stressful for plant life across the state than in the past.

Now, the period from spring 21 through spring 22 was relatively nice (including both a nice summer rain-wise, with the greatest warm December the following winter). The cold snaps weren't as potent/focused on Texas.

The Jan 22' events brought more impact to the SE (namely the Carolinas), while Dec 22 had a more board-wide involement of cold anomalies. Early 23 (late Jan, early Feb) featured icy weather in Texas, but impacts were limited to a specific region (a triangle from Midland to DFW, then SW down I-35 to San Antonio),with elsewhere avoiding it.

It seems to be the tendency of specific amplified patterns in these recent years, with winter western trough/eastern ridging and then vice versa during summer. Both are of no benefit to Texas: instead, the ideal would be more zonal and/or elongated patterns (for example, a Bermuda pattern ridge extending through versus a Sonoran bubble ridge). As a bonus, the zonal patterns span the length of the South, so there's better chance of board wide impacts for stuff like winter storms (for you all that like them).
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_nevi said:
Yea, I'm aware — it seems to be favoring particular patterns (i.e. western trough during winter, Sonoran ridging during summer) that is turning Texas into a cursed, forsaken state (as opposed to the ridges and troughs being more "randomized").
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I mean, last winter overall still ended up above average temp-wise for Texas.

DFW averages 2" of snow per year, and it's perfectly normal for it to get brief cold snaps and intermittent snow/ice events. In total, DFW got about 1.8" of sleet last year, right in line with climo.

Feb '21 was indeed highly unusual, especially with respect to coverage/duration and the fact that ERCOT's capacity is under even more strain these days because of the explosive population growth, but even it wasn't entirely unprecedented (see 2011 and 1983).

As far as Summers, 2019-2021 were fairly pedestrian by Texas standards, if not a bit on the cool side. And don't forget, the hottest Summer of all was way back in 1980. With respect to this Summer, it's too early to judge how it will playout. Although with the Canadian wildfires having similar cooling effects in the atmosphere as the big Volcano eruption did in 1992 across the NE US and the burgeoning El Nino amplifying the STJ, any ridging and potential heatwaves going forward are looking a lot messier, especially for North Texas (see the way the pattern played out through mid-June for example).

But my overall point is there isn't enough hard statistical evidence to suggest the weather patterns are becoming any more wonky for us than usual, other than the frequency of tornado outbreaks having taken a huge nose dive (which is a good thing).
 
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