Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

[SD]

NAM really dissolves Jose and has a decent ridge poking west of Bermuda. Probably wouldn't be enough to get Maria west to the Carolinas but certainly a step toward a more westward solution

 

[ForsythSnow]

GFS coming in slower, weaker, and more south. Jose a bit more south too.

 

[SD]

GFS coming in slower, weaker, and more south. Jose a bit more south too.

its leaving the door open for a NNW to N track of Maria then a left hook into the Carolinas or mid atlantic.

 

[SD]

surprised the GFS isnt more west. decent height rises over the atlantic, jose gone and the northeast ridge bridging with the atlantic ridge.

 

[NCSNOW]

"NEW YORK CITY"

 

[NCSNOW]

least thats where it looks like it ought to head too

 

[ForsythSnow]

"NEW YORK CITY"

That's 6Z.
Here is 12Z. Slowed here and may be getting pulled in.

 

[Tarheel1]

That's 6Z.
Here is 12Z. Slowed here and may be getting pulled in.

Looks like it has to go NW/ NNW from there!?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Looks like it has to go NW/ NNW from there!?

Moves NW at 162. Coming in for a hit or close approach.

 

[NCSNOW]

oops, wrong time stamp. was comparing when copying. Anyway the ridges bridge better on 12z. look at 6z just NE of Maine and youll see weak lp. Then look at 12z and its futher east allowing HPs to bridge.

 

[Storm5]

CMC looks to be west as well

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

 

[ForsythSnow]

Caught in an upper level disturbance, being slung NW about to be W.

 

[ForsythSnow]

CMC looks to be west as well

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk

Same thing could happen on the CMC as the GFS is having. Huge upper level disturbance over the SE and Gulf.

 

[ForsythSnow]

GFS will be OTS. Trough coming in and already moving NE at 174. Getting a little too close for comfort.

 

[Tarheel1]

Hope timing works out better to sweep hurricanes out to sea, than they do when we need them to get here for our winter storms, they are always slower!

 

[Weatherlover92]

12Z CMC sends Maria into VA.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like the last few runs have been coming in further West on all the models. I know folks have been talking about the ridge, and with it in place it should push Maria further West, but the models aren't showing it for some reason. Well, that's based on how things usually work, but things don't seem to work like usual all the time anymore. So, maybe she can go out to sea even with the ridge there.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Thankfully that big dip in the jet stream next week may cause Maria to go OTS.

 

[Webberweather53]

Once Maria leaves, and the Azores-bermuda high re-intensifies and leads to an easterly trade wind resurgence we're going to have to probably turn our attention to the western Caribbean and Central America for more tropical cyclone development...

 

[ForsythSnow]

Once Maria leaves, and the Azores-bermuda high re-intensifies and leads to an easterly trade wind resurgence we're going to have to probably turn our attention to the western Caribbean and Central America for more tropical cyclone development...
View attachment 1318

View attachment 1319

View attachment 1320
View attachment 1321

I have seen that the GFS wants to develop something, but the ensembles you show are only making the case stronger. If we get something that moves into that area and has no wind shear, we could be in trouble again. We have yet to have a storm there and the environment is hotter that Irma and Maria's were. Can we throw an iceberg or two into the ocean there so we can't have this threat? LOL