Brent
Member
recon supports a Cat 2
Eye is "poorly defined"
Eye is "poorly defined"
"Would" is a maybe at best; "could" is a possibility. A lot depends on steering currents, and what PR did to the overall direction, and where an eye may reform, and when that might happen ... etc., ...Would a weaker than forecast hurricane change the direction in which she goes?
Depends really. For now, the center had moved due west between 11 and 2 along the coast, but is moving more NW again.Would a weaker than forecast hurricane change the direction in which she goes?
Depends really. For now, the center had moved due west between 11 and 2 along the coast, but is moving more NW again.
Precisely ... another of many variables ...Looks like it's still moving more west than north on IR. That said its hard to be sure of that. Something to watch and see if it can clear the coast or does friction from Hispanola pull it in.
A route to the north or northeast out of the Caribbean into the east-central Gulf, SW Atlantic, or a drift into Central America is favored at this time of the year, the stronger mid-latitude westerlies usually steer TCs away from Texas in the 2nd half of the season although it's not impossible for TX to see them.I hope it can gyrate some rain up here! But if anything forms, it'll probably drift into Texas!
Yeah after mid-late September when the Rockies ridge erodes it usually comes to a close. Unfortunately, areas of SW FL recently affected by Irma are in the climatological sweet spot for a US hit in OctoberTexas season pretty much shuts down once the fronts start coming, I'm expecting the next Texas storm to be an EPAC recurve, Norma tried and failed
"Would" is a maybe at best; "could" is a possibility. A lot depends on steering currents, and what PR did to the overall direction, and where an eye may reform, and when that might happen ... etc., ...
EDIT: I was just listening to JB on the radio while driving from the courthouse and he says that FL "has absolutely 0 chance of being affected by Maria." I wonder why I suddenly have this sinking sensation in my gut ...
Part was semantics; the other part ...I wouldn't say absolute 0 chance tor FL but I would say under 1% for FL and GA and under 5% for SC. The models are in about as much agreement as you ever see and they're well off the coast. I don't think this weakening means much regarding future track. The Outer Banks obviously are at the highest risk of any SE US location but I'd go only about 20% right now for an actual NC landfall though higher chance for significant effects.
I want to thank Jose for a job well done. Thank you, good sir, for protecting much of the SE!
Doesn't surprise me. They are customers of the outage management software I used to develop (not yet in production), and their power grid infrastructure is one of the worst we had ever seen.I heard there's no power at all in PR, even most of the chasers have either not reported or only briefly made a report, no real details
Doesn't surprise me. They are customers of the outage management software I used to develop (not yet in production), and their power grid infrastructure is one of the worst we had ever seen.