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Tropical Major Hurricane Maria

ForsythSnow said:
I have seen that the GFS wants to develop something, but the ensembles you show are only making the case stronger. If we get something that moves into that area and has no wind shear, we could be in trouble again. We have yet to have a storm there and the environment is hotter that Irma and Maria's were. Can we throw an iceberg or two into the ocean there so we can't have this threat? LOL
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We'll just have to see what happens, these monsoon gyre developments can either result in lopsided, very large TCs or absolute monsters, but regardless what usually results is a massive tropical cyclone. You're virtually guaranteed a huge TC when development is spurred off the monsoon gyre because the background pressures associated with it are low-extraordinarily low and the upper level moisture is very high
 
This forecast is out the window now, unless we see some RI later today.

INIT 20/1500Z 18.4N 66.5W 120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO
12H 21/0000Z 19.2N 67.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 20.2N 69.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 21.2N 70.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 22.4N 71.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 28.5N 73.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 31.5N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
 
Not too surprising, didn't Maria stay across PR a little longer than forecast? Any extended period of time over any landmass of any elevation would be enough to knock the wind (no pun intended) out of a monstrous Cat. 4/5 hurricane.
 
I don't think we should underestimate how powerful she still is. Keep in mind those winds were hitting the mountains.
recon_AF305-0915A-MARIA_dropsonde3_20170920-1745.png
 
Euro looks to be headed OTS

Jose keeps getting weaker and weaker but there's also a big trough in the plains
 
One thing ive noticed is that the NHC has trouble forecasting intensity when a hurricane is in or near land. Wasnt Irma also weaker than forecast after she made landfall with Cuba ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
One thing ive noticed is that the NHC has trouble forecasting intensity when a hurricane is in or near land. Wasnt Irma also weaker than forecast after she made landfall with Cuba ?
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intensity is always a pain, neither Irma or Maria was forecast to be a 5 the initial time until it was painfully obvious

Harvey's landfall forecast was originally barely a hurricane
 
Any damage reports from Puerto Rico? Have been reading posts about coverage of St Croix and Virgin Islands. People there are upset with major news outlets for not covering them such as they have Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands. Apparently St Croix communications are down at this time. Just tragic & heartbreaking at all the posts about people worried about their loved ones. And if they survived.
 
stormcentral said:
Any damage reports from Puerto Rico? Have been reading posts about coverage of St Croix and Virgin Islands. People there are upset with major news outlets for not covering them such as they have Puerto Rico and Leeward Islands. Apparently St Croix communications are down at this time. Just tragic & heartbreaking at all the posts about people worried about their loved ones. And if they survived.
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I heard there's no power at all in PR, even most of the chasers have either not reported or only briefly made a report, no real details
 
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