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Pattern Microwave March

Webber, what are your thoughts on upcoming March? Could we pull the rabbit out of the hat for possible winter event? Or move right into spring? Generally speaking for the Southeast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol, I would have to say that our window may be small, but there is a little hope left. If the Euro came on board with what the GFS is showing, maybe we could get excited, but seeing all these fantasy storms that the GFS hasn't put out all winter has to excite some. Shoot, it may even bring Brick out.
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We essentially have until ~25th or so before our climatology becomes extremely unfavorable (or more so than it already seems to be). Mid march isn't great but is certainly doable. We definitely need to come up w/ a storm in a hurry because we're running short on time (& patience).
 
SnowHusky said:
I blocked him, so a private thread wouldn't do any good. Some people need to learn how to stop trying to run the show, trying to be the "big boss". Also, I like to earn leadership, not just here, it could be anywhere. And when someone runs me over, I don't appreciate that. I run a Facebook weather page, I'm the leader of that page. Someone don't need to think their the big show when I have leadership of my own.

Edit: it's over, no more drama, let's go back on topic.

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So you blocked one of, if not THE, most knowledgeable people on this board because he disagrees with what you say, and provides the reasons why? If you really do have a learning disability that hinders you, it would be wise to try to gain as much knowledge from others like Webber....knowledge that you may otherwise have trouble understanding or processing. You could then use that knowledge to better forecast for your followers. Just my 2 cents.....and 2 cents won't buy you anything!
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png
this would be great if it were tomorrow, lol
 
accu35 said:
Webber, what are your thoughts on upcoming March? Could we pull the rabbit out of the hat for possible winter event? Or move right into spring? Generally speaking for the Southeast.
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Similar to what I forecasted several months ago, I still think March as a whole will be above-well above average but not quite as much relative to average as February (which isn't saying a lot). I'm starting to become a little concerned however that the MJO make attempt to make another move back into the Maritime Continent by mid month, both the GFS & ECMWF have issues w/ MJO initialization in the indian ocean, the canonical western hemisphere bias plagues the GEFS suite while the Euro suffers from the barrier effect here wherein it often has trouble bringing the MJO out of the eastern IO (phase 3), through the MT and into the Western Pacific. This could make an already mild pattern even warmer, however, the rapidly changing wavelengths at this time of the year could allow for more transience than normal... It's definitely worth keeping an eye on the evolution of the MJO the next month or so to see if another pulse runs through the West-central Pacific and sets off a large WWB event, that could be enough to begin setting the stage for another El Nino given the already displaced west Pac warm pool. The last MJO event came a little too early climatologically speaking as most of the westerly wind anomalies were confined to the southern hemisphere but was still enough to entice some modest downwelling across the near-equatorial Pacific and completely erase the -SSTAs in the NINO 3.4 region...
 
ForsythSnow said:
Lol, I would have to say that our window may be small, but there is a little hope left. If the Euro came on board with what the GFS is showing, maybe we could get excited, but seeing all these fantasy storms that the GFS hasn't put out all winter has to excite some. Shoot, it may even bring Brick out.
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brick knows winter is done... don't buy long range gfs... not happening...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Similar to what I forecasted several months ago, I still think March as a whole will be above-well above average but not quite as much relative to average as February (which isn't saying a lot). I'm starting to become a little concerned however that the MJO make attempt to make another move back into the Maritime Continent by mid month, both the GFS & ECMWF have issues w/ MJO initialization in the indian ocean, the canonical western hemisphere bias plagues the GEFS suite while the Euro suffers from the barrier effect here wherein it often has trouble bringing the MJO out of the eastern IO (phase 3), through the MT and into the Western Pacific. This could make an already mild pattern even warmer, however, the rapidly changing wavelengths at this time of the year could allow for more transience than normal... It's definitely worth keeping an eye on the evolution of the MJO the next month or so to see if another pulse runs through the West-central Pacific and sets off a large WWB event, that could be enough to begin setting the stage for another El Nino given the already displaced west Pac warm pool. The last MJO event came a little too early climatologically speaking as most of the westerly wind anomalies were confined to the southern hemisphere but was still enough to entice some modest downwelling across the near-equatorial Pacific and completely erase the -SSTAs in the NINO 3.4 region...
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When was this amazing severe weather outbreak you were concerned about a week ago? Did I miss it? Or is it still on the way?
 
accu35 said:
Lol, giving how bad our winter sucked this year, I'm ready for severe weather to kick off plus ready for upcoming hurricane season
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You wanna clean up my yard and roof with no power and no A/C for days @ 94º this coming Sept (like this past one 2X)? Just sayin' - snow melts - 'cane's and their effects last a lot longer - well, well after they are gone ...
 
pcbjr said:
You wanna clean up my yard and roof with no power and no A/C for days @ 94º this coming Sept (like this past one 2X)? Just sayin' - snow melts - 'cane's and their effects last a lot longer - well, well after they are gone ...
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Your choice to live in FL.


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DadOfJax said:
So you blocked one of, if not THE, most knowledgeable people on this board because he disagrees with what you say, and provides the reasons why? If you really do have a learning disability that hinders you, it would be wise to try to gain as much knowledge from others like Webber....knowledge that you may otherwise have trouble understanding or processing. You could then use that knowledge to better forecast for your followers. Just my 2 cents.....and 2 cents won't buy you anything!
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I know for sure, I don't have the terminology as Webber does. I didn't block him to the fact that he disagrees with me. I blocked him for now, cause we need a break. I do have enough knowledge to forecast the weather and to come up with predictions, that's what matters. Don't you think if my forecasts wasn't accurate and I don't know what I'm talking about, I'd have less followers on my page then I do now? I do indeed have a weak learning disability, I can imagine things in my mind but sometimes it's hard for me to process it from my mind to words. So, I have to think of ways for me to easily explain it better, this leads to making it sound like I don't know what I'm talking about but I do. You know, one of my favorite quotes from Einstein is, "If you can't explain it simply, you don't understand it enough".



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I wouldn't live in Florida , if you paid me 10 million$ and chauffeur me back and forth to work ! It's like a cess pool of humidity and Yankees
 
Tarheel1 said:
I wouldn't live in Florida , if you paid me 10 million$ and chauffeur me back and forth to work ! It's like a cess pool of humidity and Yankees
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You have the wrong part of the state in mind - I REFUSE to go or work south of Miccanopy ... it's NY there ... here it's good ol' south ... with radiational cooling to boot! ;)
 
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