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Severe Severe Threat April 5th-7th

NorthBamaWeather said:
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I quit WxBell - how does the FL panhandle look on JB's NAM map?
 
Arcc said:
Both from 18z NAM showing a very dangerous and rare early to mid morning threat.

VV at 700mb

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Sounding from near BHM same time.

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Yeah that morning threat is nothing to sleep on for sure


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I'm not sold on the new 3k NAM it's been pretty crappy as of late


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Hopefully it's not as bad as it could be.

I haven't really been paying attention to the accuracy but how accurate is the NAM in regards to Severe Wx?
 
GFS is about 4 hours faster than the NAM and EURO is about 2 hours slower than the GFS
 
NorthBamaWeather said:
GFS is about 4 hours faster than the NAM and EURO is about 2 hours slower than the GFS
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Yep gfs implies less of a secondary threat being that fast . Could be correct as the euro isn't that far behind .

NAM is the slowest which raises red flags and because it's the NAM


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Storm5 said:
Once a damn day?


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Probably for days 3-8 they keep it once a day. I wouldn't put much stock into days 3-8 anyway on the SPC maps, except for event areas and timing really. Strength of the event should be in better picture by tomorrow evening I feel.
 
Local mets are saying more rain in the morning with round 1 of storms for the TN Valley would help to stabilize the atmosphere for the afternoon round 2 of storms. But, they are watching forecast guidance slowing the system, possibly allowing for significant instability to develop across the entire state of AL. They are still uncertain, watching and waiting.
 
skywatcher said:
Local mets are saying more rain in the morning with round 1 of storms for the TN Valley would help to stabilize the atmosphere for the afternoon round 2 of storms. But, they are watching forecast guidance slowing the system, possibly allowing for significant instability to develop across the entire state of AL. They are still uncertain, watching and waiting.
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I'm no met and severe weather isn't really my thing but I don't agree with that at all. Almost all guidance is showing a fairly volatile atmosphere after the morning storms which by the way will be booking it NE . It's not like the models are showing a slow progression with the morning storms . If that were the case I could see the argument that they might stabilize the atmosphere some. But that's not the case


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