RollTide18
Member
Maybe we can get one of those surprise, out of nowhere systems like South Carolina did in November '14
For a second I thought my dad had joined this forum and stole your identity but then realized he don't know jack about the western hemi MJO.... Lol. Just razzing you man, good stuff as always!Ugh, for the umpteenth time I can virtually guarantee you that the MJO is not going back into phase 8 at the end of the month... Stop looking at the GEFS. It's complete garbage w/ western hemisphere MJO forecasts
I believe that we here in the southeast continue to defy all logic with winter weather in recent memory...Somewhat depends on what time period you are looking at (JFM or FMA) - for me, I prefer the composite with the month in question in the middle. However - remember - those are just composites, are not a forecast, and there is sooo much more that goes into a weather pattern than a single index or an index composite (as this year has aptly demonstrated, and continues to)
Somewhat depends on what time period you are looking at (JFM or FMA) - for me, I prefer the composite with the month in question in the middle. However - remember - those are just composites, are not a forecast, and there is sooo much more that goes into a weather pattern than a single index or an index composite (as this year has aptly demonstrated, and continues to)
It's only through 240. We are looking past that to the brave new future.Euro: eh
Thanks, Webb! You added a bit of sunshine to a cloudy, windy day!Exactly, also note how insignificant the negative temperature anomalies are in phase one in FMA, phase 2 oth is a different story, we'll definitely have to keep an eye out for when the MJO moves here because recent research by Roundy and others have noted an uptick in violent tornado outbreaks in the spring during MJO phase 2 (which is largely tied to its modulation of the ET rossby wave train creating a favorable planetary wave configuration for severe wx)
Said better than I ...I believe that we here in the southeast continue to defy all logic with winter weather in recent memory...
Think I'll take a screenshot of this.. LolSaid better than I ...
be my guest - it's absolutely true in this instance!Think I'll take a screenshot of this.. Lol
it usually is interesting in a place or two between here and there - and i'm not referring to weather, either ...
If Tennessee is frigid and north Florida is blowtorch, it could get interesting somewhere in between.
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I have heard that the UK does a fairly good job with the MJO compared to a lot of the other models.
Doesn't necessarily mean they will be at the end of summer or into fall, when they reall matter for our blockbuster 17/18 winter!All NINO regions except NINO 4 are now above 0... It's happening.
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