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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

dsaur said:
I've got some optimism! I've gotten 3 inches of rain from the last two events, to go with all the rain I've gotten since it started to rain again, lol. This warming we are in, be it micro or macro, is somewhat anomalous, in that it doesn't get this warm for this long in winter every year, lol, and indeed since my youth I can count on one hand the number of times the pears leaves have been out this early, or like the hard woods out back that have had new leaves for at least three weeks. This means the atmosphere is ripe for anomalous events, since it in it's self it is one big anomalous event. And if this warming were to meet up with some effervescent cold in March we could get an anomalous storm, and the best example of an anomalous mid March storm I can remember was a Blizzard!
And he drops the mic!! By cleverly joining together several completely unrelated things I've created a dream dream scenario, lol. Never give up on blizzards until after mid March, and on snow until April...at least in Ga. I can't speak to anywhere else :) T
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That's what created the blizzard of 1993, severe cold had a convergence with the subtropical jet and it help fire up those thunder storms that were occurring in TX and they eventually turned into a one big cyclone. When you have a storm originating in eastern TX and dropping down in the GOM, with cold air coming down, look out.

Edit: this is what is showing on the GEFS, cold air coming down while storms are coming up from the southern stream.
 
SnowHusky said:
That's what created the blizzard of 1993, severe cold had a convergence with the subtropical jet and it help fire up those thunder storms that were occurring in TX and they eventually turned into a one big cyclone. When you have a storm originating in eastern TX and dropping down in the GOM, with cold air coming down, look out.

Edit: this is what is showing on the GEFS, cold air coming down while storms are coming up from the southern stream.
Click to expand...

The GEFS is garbage and has been all winter long imo...Wish it wasn't but it is...


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Eric said:
I posted this at American Weather several weeks ago regarding the warm winter of 1827/1828.

David Ludlum in his book Early American Winters II 1821-1870 talks about the unusually warm winters in the Eastern United States from the mid to late 1820's. He said the climax of the warm period came in the winter of 1827-1828. During that winter, fruit trees in the South started blooming in January and were in full bloom by the first week of February. Peach and apricot trees in Pennsylvania were in full bloom by the third week of February. In addition to the warm temperatures, it was an extremely wet winter(Super El Niño?). By March the circulation changed and polar air masses began to move southward with reports of snow falling as far south as coastal South Carolina during mid-March. During the first week of April a massive cold front(much like April 2007) swept through the South delivering a devastating freeze that killed all tender crops, as well as the pears and peaches. The warm winters of the 1820's ended with a return to snowy winters in the South during the 1830's.

Departures From Normal for Charleston, SC during the winter of 1828.

January +11.7°

February +13.5°

March +6.5°
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Interesting!... Although it's possible a weak NINO event was ongoing at that time, most agree that 1828-29 not 1827-28 was the year w/ the Super NINO in the early 19th century.
 
I think the models will start to get a better handle on things shortly before the 24th-25th system or after the event cause after that is when the jet starts relaxing some and it won't be crashing into the west like it has been. With the PAC raging, the models are wanting to put storm system all over the place. From the 18z GFS, it is showing the jet going into a split flow off shore during the 23rd slowing the jet down.

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SnowHusky said:
I think the models will start to get a better handle on things shortly before the 24th-25th system or after the event cause after that is when the jet starts relaxing some and it won't be crashing into the west like it has been. With the PAC raging, the models are wanting to put storm system all over the place. From the 18z GFS, it is showing the jet going into a split flow off shore during the 23rd slowing the jet down.

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The 18Z GFS throws summer into this neck of the woods - not buying it or any solution now - just watching - beats the heck out of TV these days ....
 
pcbjr said:
The 18Z GFS throws summer into this neck of the woods - not buying it or any solution now - just watching - beats the heck out of TV these days ....
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Hell of a season of House of Cards though!


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This winter season as been a hells kitchen lol-maybe, just maybe, we can make up for it late this month or in March.

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SnowHusky said:
That's what created the blizzard of 1993, severe cold had a convergence with the subtropical jet and it help fire up those thunder storms that were occurring in TX and they eventually turned into a one big cyclone. When you have a storm originating in eastern TX and dropping down in the GOM, with cold air coming down, look out.

Edit: this is what is showing on the GEFS, cold air coming down while storms are coming up from the southern stream.
Click to expand...

The superstorm was in effect a triple jet phased Nor'easter that just happened over the GOM. It was much more than just cold air and thunderstorms.
 
The western ridge on the EPS around days 13-15 just keeps getting more and more impressive....The OP gfs is also pretty hell bent on an active pattern around the start of March.
 
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