12z eps is hell bent on popping a -epo
Doesn't necessarily mean they will be at the end of summer or into fall, when they reall matter for our blockbuster 17/18 winter!
Just in time to save us hopefully...12z eps is hell bent on popping a -epo
The control shows you how we can blow even a slightly positive pattern12z eps is hell bent on popping a -epo
Yeah, the GEFS is among, if not the worst ensemble package for MJO forecasts outside the western Pacific and Maritime Continent when it's often pretty obvious that the MJO is going to enter the western hemisphere anyway. The canonical fast and dampening biases I noted a week or so ago in nearly all model suites have also held up here as well. I would anticipate this MJO pulse to enter the Indian Ocean near the very end of February and 1st week of March which does give us at least a brief window of opportunity for something wintry while our climatology is still somewhat respectable.
It's really hard to believe another El Nino is attempting to legitimately emerge after one of the longest and strongest events of the past few centuries just wrapped up a little less than a year ago. If another El Nino successfully develops, I can imagine global temperatures will spike yet again. It's amazing to see how warm the global SSTAs are at the moment and another El Nino would only add insult to a semi-permanent injury...
View attachment 171
There's no precedent for another El Nino developing immediately after an exceptionally large event (within 2 years) in the observational record that goes back to the mid 19th century. Looking at Quinn's ENSO reconstruction, there may have been another El Nino immediately after the super NINO in 1828. Other than that, I don't see any other legitimate instances of this occurring in at least the last 500 years, which certainly bolsters the argument that a significant proportion of the observed behavior in natural phenomena such as ENSO has a non-negligible and potentially large anthropogenic component via encouraging more rapid recovery of the West Pacific Warm Pool...
Here's the 7 day SST anomaly change, yea thanks largely to the MJO, we've seen a huge increase in the central Pacific SSTAs
View attachment 172
Not this again....long range MJO, as depicted by the GEFS has been wrong all season. This was explained before.Checking out the MJO, the GFS OP puts it back in phase 8 late month while the GEFS puts it in a weak phase 7 but it has it pointing towards back at phase 8 late month. With the trends I've been seeing on the MJO, I think late month will be on a weak phase 8 (possibly to a moderate phase 8) to a weak phase 7. After the system of the 24th-25th, that's when we'll see a different track of systems. We'll start to see more systems coming along in the southern stream along the subtropical jet. As I mentioned last week (I believe it was last week) that we could see more overrunning events because of the moist subtropical jet. This could mean, good moist wet snow or even sleet/ZR events as the cold layer gets underneath the subtropical jet. I'm not saying that's what's set in stone, no, I'm saying that's a possibility.
March is not a winter month. So what was the departure for Dec 1927 ?I posted this at American Weather several weeks ago regarding the warm winter of 1827/1828.
David Ludlum in his book Early American Winters II 1821-1870 talks about the unusually warm winters in the Eastern United States from the mid to late 1820's. He said the climax of the warm period came in the winter of 1827-1828. During that winter, fruit trees in the South started blooming in January and were in full bloom by the first week of February. Peach and apricot trees in Pennsylvania were in full bloom by the third week of February. In addition to the warm temperatures, it was an extremely wet winter(Super El Niño?). By March the circulation changed and polar air masses began to move southward with reports of snow falling as far south as coastal South Carolina during mid-March. During the first week of April a massive cold front(much like April 2007) swept through the South delivering a devastating freeze that killed all tender crops, as well as the pears and peaches. The warm winters of the 1820's ended with a return to snowy winters in the South during the 1830's.
Departures From Normal for Charleston, SC during the winter of 1828.
January +11.7°
February +13.5°
March +6.5°
Mr. Ludlum states in his book temperatures in Charleston in December 1827 were "slightly above normal."March is not a winter month. So what was the departure for Dec 1927 ?
It's really hard to believe another El Nino is attempting to legitimately emerge after one of the longest and strongest events of the past few centuries just wrapped up a little less than a year ago. If another El Nino successfully develops, I can imagine global temperatures will spike yet again. It's amazing to see how warm the global SSTAs are at the moment and another El Nino would only add insult to a semi-permanent injury...
View attachment 171
There's no precedent for another El Nino developing immediately after an exceptionally large event (within 2 years) in the observational record that goes back to the mid 19th century. Looking at Quinn's ENSO reconstruction, there may have been another El Nino immediately after the super NINO in 1828. Other than that, I don't see any other legitimate instances of this occurring in at least the last 500 years, which certainly bolsters the argument that a significant proportion of the observed behavior in natural phenomena such as ENSO has a non-negligible and potentially large anthropogenic component via encouraging more rapid recovery of the West Pacific Warm Pool...
Here's the 7 day SST anomaly change, yea thanks largely to the MJO, we've seen a huge increase in the central Pacific SSTAs
View attachment 172
I've got some optimism! I've gotten 3 inches of rain from the last two events, to go with all the rain I've gotten since it started to rain again, lol. This warming we are in, be it micro or macro, is somewhat anomalous, in that it doesn't get this warm for this long in winter every year, lol, and indeed since my youth I can count on one hand the number of times the pears leaves have been out this early, or like the hard woods out back that have had new leaves for at least three weeks. This means the atmosphere is ripe for anomalous events, since it in it's self it is one big anomalous event. And if this warming were to meet up with some effervescent cold in March we could get an anomalous storm, and the best example of an anomalous mid March storm I can remember was a Blizzard!Fear not ... and join the eternal optimism train ride ...
NWS here within 48 hours, and then 24, had severe posted, with a rain deluge guaranteed. Let's see, other than a nice steady wind and a few passing clouds, with only 6 minutes of sprinkles while the sun shone ... They busted on a one day forecast.
Here's some hope sent everyone's way that climo may still give us something to "hurrah" about, notwithstanding what some models today may say about 10 - 14 days out.
Tony - glad to see you here!I've got some optimism! ... And he drops the mic!! By cleverly joining together several completely unrelated things I've created a dream dream scenario, lol. Never give up on blizzards until after mid March, and on snow until April...at least in Ga. I can't speak to anywhere else T
Tony - glad to see you here!
My mic was dropped and left elsewhere in America!
Never say never until never is the only thing left to say ....
LMAO#never
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LMAO
But seriously - "never" is an absolute, and absolutes are hard to retract ....
I've gotta quit thinking like a lawyer for a few hours ...So true...
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