olhausen
Member
Down to 10 degrees here already which I believe was the forecasted low. I had ice forming on my eyelashes today when I took the dog on a walk.
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Pattern January Discussion
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Stormlover
Member
From Snowbird Bob, a facebook guy with a following. Comments?
JLL1973
Member
Stormlover said:From Snowbird Bob, a facebook guy with a following. Comments?
In my opinion winter weather should stay well northwest of the midsouth
whatalife
Moderator
JLL1973 said:Stormlover said:From Snowbird Bob, a facebook guy with a following. Comments?
In my opinion winter weather should stay well northwest of the midsouth
I would agree and verbatim from the models that is an ugly ice storm if it were to happen.
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Stormlover
Member
JLL1973 said:Stormlover said:From Snowbird Bob, a facebook guy with a following. Comments?
In my opinion winter weather should stay well northwest of the midsouth
Based on what? Mem;phis and that area of the midsouth looks to get hammered big time.
JLL1973
Member
Stormlover said:JLL1973 said:Stormlover said:From Snowbird Bob, a facebook guy with a following. Comments?
In my opinion winter weather should stay well northwest of the midsouth
Based on what? Mem;phis and that area of the midsouth looks to get hammered big time.
Based on the ole northwest trend. 00z GFS already has it already trending northwest
Stormlover
Member
That's one run...it may sink farther southeast than the 18Z ...though I think Snowbird Bob may be a little too far with itJLL1973 said:
JLL1973
Member
Stormlover said:
You never know. Just have to keep an eye on it. 18z definitely got my attention
VegasEagle
Member
Yep, that one is definitely an attention getter. Looks like it will keep this board busy.JLL1973 said:
olhausen
Member
JLL1973 said:ForsythSnow said:Storm5 said:no one wants to talk about late next weekend for areas to our west.
ice storm city
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I was going to upload an image of the ice they are showing, then saw the site was back up, then forgot. Here it is.
Worst spot is 1.8" of ice. Imagine if that played out as even half.
What is more impressive are the temps and the high behind that. The 18Z GFS has a 1053 high in the Midwest, with -30 temps.
one inch of ice. na i think ill pass on that
VegasEagle said:
The euro also takes it well north of here but it's still showing a big ice storm for someone.
Hot off the press from Larry Cosgrove tonight:
"From looking at the computer model and analog forecasts, it seems pretty certain that something approximating the 'January Thaw' will be affecting most of the nation between January 13 and 22. But the question many forecasters have on their minds is, 'Is winter over'?"
"But a potentially new rub shows up in the weekly forecasts of the CFS and ECMWF platforms: strong -EPO/+PNA ridging from Alaska to California. The analog depiction seems a little fast with this development (January 22), but I am confident that a warm/dry West vs. cold/stormy Central East configuration is likely to occur shortly thereafter, and quite possibly last through February and the first half of March. The 1996 comparison has some value here, albeit with a colder outcome like 2014 or 2015. If dual blocking signatures emerge again along the entire Pacific shoreline and Greenland, the most recent Arctic intrusion will seem like just 'part of the pattern' of the winter of 2016-2017. With some more eastern U.S. snow and ice events thrown into the mix, just for fun."
"From looking at the computer model and analog forecasts, it seems pretty certain that something approximating the 'January Thaw' will be affecting most of the nation between January 13 and 22. But the question many forecasters have on their minds is, 'Is winter over'?"
"But a potentially new rub shows up in the weekly forecasts of the CFS and ECMWF platforms: strong -EPO/+PNA ridging from Alaska to California. The analog depiction seems a little fast with this development (January 22), but I am confident that a warm/dry West vs. cold/stormy Central East configuration is likely to occur shortly thereafter, and quite possibly last through February and the first half of March. The 1996 comparison has some value here, albeit with a colder outcome like 2014 or 2015. If dual blocking signatures emerge again along the entire Pacific shoreline and Greenland, the most recent Arctic intrusion will seem like just 'part of the pattern' of the winter of 2016-2017. With some more eastern U.S. snow and ice events thrown into the mix, just for fun."
JLL1973
Member
9 degrees here this morning. That's just too cold
active period ahead in the 7 -12 day period . a massive high pressing down from the north will set the stage for a huge prolonged overrunning winter storm for texas,oklahome, Arkansas and even Louisiana . for the rest of the southeast heavy rain will rule the weekend .
just after that in the 16th-18th period we will need to watch a closed low that will be swinging through the region. how much cold air is left will be the question . but it could be fun for someone especially NW parts of the region.
and not to get too far ahead but , really liking the signs as we roll from the last week of January into the first couple of weeks of February. Looks we will head into a pattern that we have yet to see this winter with a western ridge. So it looks like we should have a window of a few weeks before we torch into March
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just after that in the 16th-18th period we will need to watch a closed low that will be swinging through the region. how much cold air is left will be the question . but it could be fun for someone especially NW parts of the region.
and not to get too far ahead but , really liking the signs as we roll from the last week of January into the first couple of weeks of February. Looks we will head into a pattern that we have yet to see this winter with a western ridge. So it looks like we should have a window of a few weeks before we torch into March
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One interesting thing to me is the continuation of the models in the medium and long term to show warmth that hasn't materialized. We warm up this week for sure but beyond that it could get interesting again. Just two days ago several were saying hopefully we have something to track in February. It appears that February may come early for several in the region. Regardless, fun times continue ahead.
It is pretty rare for Birmingham to get pressures as high as 30.80" but they, indeed, got that at 9AM this morning! That's 1043 mb! Tuscaloosa had 30.82" (1044 mb)!
1042 mb (30.76-77") made it all of the way into GA at Rome, Cartersville, and Dalton.
The GFS is suggesting that 1044 mb will make it to near the Charlotte/Greensboro area tomorrow morning! Let's see if that verifies.
1042 mb (30.76-77") made it all of the way into GA at Rome, Cartersville, and Dalton.
The GFS is suggesting that 1044 mb will make it to near the Charlotte/Greensboro area tomorrow morning! Let's see if that verifies.
whatalife
Moderator
Storm5 said:
Very well put. I feel for those in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and surrounding areas. Could be a significant icing situation. Pattern does look interesting from about the 20th on.
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I love the longer range is showing lowering heights across the Bahamas and into the GOM. That should really setup a fun storm track over the south.
The GFS is showing its cold bias with near ideal radiational cooling conditions over deep snowcover, when it often overdoes the lows. For example, even today's 12Z GFS had a low of 2F at Greensboro, NC, this morning even though the low was only down to 9F. They have them getting down to a ridiculously cold -12F tonight!!! The RDU NWS office is wisely ignoring that nonsense and has them getting down to near 0F (still frigid and record cold though).
I think it is always important to recognize model biases and this is the best way to learn them, keeping track of verifications.
I think it is always important to recognize model biases and this is the best way to learn them, keeping track of verifications.
To add to the above, here's an even worse case if you can believe it. Today's 0Z and 6Z GFS runs had KGSP (Greer, SC) down to the -3 to -4F range over its snowcover. It only got down to around 17F!! The last 3 runs have a low of -1F for tonight and that's even with partial high cloudcover! GSP is not at all buying that and is predicting around 13F.
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