Pattern January Discussion

[ForsythSnow]

Wow, Friday is going to be a blowtorch. Highs in the upper 60s. Some may hit 70. What a wild swing in temperatures.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Is it normal for temps to be well above forecast when there's snowcover on the ground ? I was forecast to be 10 this morning and I was 15 ! And that's with clear skies.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Wow at that those highs in the Midwest/GL areas and near New England.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

So when is our next snow/ice threat in GA and AL ?

 

[ForsythSnow]

So when is our next snow/ice threat in GA and AL ?

Looking at the GFS trends with this upcoming weekend's ice storm to our north, it moves south a bit each run. Not sure if it is anything, but the GFS likes to play CAD events and their temperatures, and it shows light precipitation in with a weakening high of around 1041 on the Canadian border of New York. Might be nothing, but could become a worry later if things trend towards it.

That is just how I see it, not sure how everyone else does.

 

[Shawn]

Not sure.  588dm ridge.  Even dew points are quite warm.  It'd be hard even with that high parked there to get anywhere cold enough into the deeper South.  Maybe parts of Northern NC  and Virginia.

 

[GaWx]

Is it normal for temps to be well above forecast when there's snowcover on the ground ? I was forecast to be 10 this morning and I was 15 ! And that's with clear skies.

 Please see my above two posts about the GFS way too cold over snowcover bias. Maybe that played a part in FFC going too cold??

 

[GaWx]

Not sure.  588dm ridge.  Even dew points are quite warm.  It'd be hard even with that high parked there to get anywhere cold enough into the deeper South.  Maybe parts of Northern NC  and Virginia.

 Agreed, Shawn. I see no evidence of any widespread significant SE threat through at least 1/20 (basically as far as one can semi reliably see).

 

[ForsythSnow]

Not sure.  588dm ridge.  Even dew points are quite warm.  It'd be hard even with that high parked there to get anywhere cold enough into the deeper South.  Maybe parts of Northern NC  and Virginia.

 Agreed, Shawn. I see no evidence of any widespread significant SE threat through at least 1/20 (basically as far as one can semi reliably see).

Thanks, I wasn't seeing that ridge, but does that affect the surface, since CAD is usually a surface feature, and that is a 500mb feature, or does that overall keep the high pressure effects north?

 

[accu35]

I noticed north Arkansas is now play with that system, just curious if it trends further south towards Memphis like earlier runs?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I'll be fine with a break from cold weather by after Monday. Somehow I feel there will be another chance (at least one) but for now I'm good with a break.

The pattern may actually need to change though (instead of being progressive).

 

[Storm5]

Not sure.  588dm ridge.  Even dew points are quite warm.  It'd be hard even with that high parked there to get anywhere cold enough into the deeper South.  Maybe parts of Northern NC  and Virginia.

 Agreed, Shawn. I see no evidence of any widespread significant SE threat through at least 1/20 (basically as far as one can semi reliably see).

Yeah looks like we can all sleep for a few weeks. I have hope late January into the first few weeks of February will be a window before spring arrives

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[SoutheastRidge]

I'm good for the winter. Now I'm ready for spring.

 

[Shawn]

Not sure.  588dm ridge.  Even dew points are quite warm.  It'd be hard even with that high parked there to get anywhere cold enough into the deeper South.  Maybe parts of Northern NC  and Virginia.

 Agreed, Shawn. I see no evidence of any widespread significant SE threat through at least 1/20 (basically as far as one can semi reliably see).

Thanks, I wasn't seeing that ridge, but does that affect the surface, since CAD is usually a surface feature, and that is a 500mb feature, or does that overall keep the high pressure effects north?

Just warm air filtering in.  The lowest dew-point during the maximum CAD signature I could find per 18z GFS was 47F in Georgia.  Temperatures even approach 70's in some locations.  You can see CAD is having an effect on areas, it's just much too warm to begin with.

 

[GaWx]

Not sure.  588dm ridge.  Even dew points are quite warm.  It'd be hard even with that high parked there to get anywhere cold enough into the deeper South.  Maybe parts of Northern NC  and Virginia.

 Agreed, Shawn. I see no evidence of any widespread significant SE threat through at least 1/20 (basically as far as one can semi reliably see).

Thanks, I wasn't seeing that ridge, but does that affect the surface, since CAD is usually a surface feature, and that is a 500mb feature, or does that overall keep the high pressure effects north?

 YW. Yes, that makes it very tough to get low level cold air down that far south. There's nowhere close to the low level cold needed for anything even close to a threat for the bulk of the SE US. Maybe by sometime after 1/20 there will be another threat although no model can see anything that far with reliability just yet. We may have to wait til February as bad as the 500 mb pattern looks. But sometimes things will change on a dime. The storm we just had and the current cold weren't on the day 15-16 GFS runs for the most part.

 

[ForsythSnow]

 Agreed, Shawn. I see no evidence of any widespread significant SE threat through at least 1/20 (basically as far as one can semi reliably see).

Thanks, I wasn't seeing that ridge, but does that affect the surface, since CAD is usually a surface feature, and that is a 500mb feature, or does that overall keep the high pressure effects north?

 YW. Yes, that makes it very tough to get low level cold air down that far south. There's nowhere close to the low level cold needed for anything even close to a threat for the bulk of the SE US. Maybe by sometime after 1/20 there will be another threat although no model can see anything that far with reliability just yet. We may have to wait til February as bad as the 500 mb pattern looks. But sometimes things will change on a dime. The storm we just had and the current cold weren't on the day 15-16 GFS runs for the most part.

Okay, thanks. maybe we can reload in a couple of weeks, but who knows what can happen. Things can definitely change quickly in the medium to long range.

 

[GaWx]

Lol, the 18Z GFS still has -11F for tomorrow morning's low at Greensboro, NC. What is that model smoking?

 

[SD]

Lol, the 18Z GFS still has -11F for tomorrow morning's low at Greensboro, NC. What is that model smoking?

I'm in on it

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[JLL1973]

I noticed north Arkansas is now play with that system, just curious if it trends further south towards Memphis like earlier runs?

Looks like to me it's trended well northwest. Last night I was in the ice zone now it's in northwest arkansas

 

[Storm5]

I noticed north Arkansas is now play with that system, just curious if it trends further south towards Memphis like earlier runs?

Looks like to me it's trended well northwest. Last night I was in the ice zone now it's in northwest arkansas

where are you located

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