Pattern February Discussion Part II

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Man talk about threading the needle.

if it's a little faster it's gonna be an inland runner. if it's a little later it's a better event board wide .

forget the High so much of this has to do with what's going on in the NE. confluence is key , if it's any weaker it's a Kentucky special

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Storm5 said:
Man talk about threading the needle.

if it's a little faster it's gonna be an inland runner. if it's a little later it's a better event board wide .

forget the High so much of this has to do with what's going on in the NE. confluence is key , if it's any weaker it's a Kentucky special

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The kentucky bucket? thats good chicken
 
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Although it didn't show a storm, the 6z GFS also showed the delayed second wave idea. So it's holding so far, but I need to see it hold through at least the 0z suite and some other guidance at least support the delayed second wave (don't have to show a storm).
 
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12z cmc has exactly what we need to fear. less confluence in the NE.....the Kentucky special
201d1bb5be81983b3fcf2553423d1aca.jpg


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bouncycorn said:
Honestly the cmc is not good with 1) multiple systems and 2) timing. Ecmwf, on the other hand, usually is BUT has a north bias.


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but we can't just ignore that solution . in fact the last few gefs runs support a cmc like solution .

let's see what the gefs shows in a few . It's a fine line we are walking with timing . If one thing is off the whole thing changes for better or worse

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Storm5 said:
but we can't just ignore that solution . in fact the last few gefs runs support a cmc like solution .

let's see what the gefs shows in a few . It's a fine line we are walking with timing . If one thing is off the whole thing changes for better or worse

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Yeah there have been a few members showing this scenario so real interested in what gefs shows and of course good old dr. no

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bouncycorn said:
Look at the cmc trend though. It's been trending better and better, even if it isn't good yet.


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look at the gfs over the last 3 days . all.over the road.

again until the ensembles get on board I'm not gonna get too excited .

95 percent of the eps members look nothing like what the gfs op showed. not saying it can't or won't happen . just being realistic at this point. there is very little support at the moment . let's see what the 12z gefs says

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I'm not really even looking for a winter storm in other models right now, but I do at least need to see the delayed second wave idea pop up in other models. Everything else can be worked out later.

with the idea of possible separation between two major waves, it's going to be hard to work this out, BUT if the waves do phase together again in the future on the models and that sticks (instead of this idea) we can write this off.
 
Don't see how we can't see agreement with some members on the GEFS
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm not really even looking for a winter storm in other models right now, but I do at least need to see the delayed second wave idea pop up in other models. Everything else can be worked out later.

with the idea of possible separation between two major waves, it's going to be hard to work this out, BUT if the waves do phase together again in the future on the models and that sticks (instead of this idea) we can write this off.
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will see every run has a different story
 
Storm5 said:
look at the gfs over the last 3 days . all.over the road.

again until the ensembles get on board I'm not gonna get too excited .

95 percent of the eps members look nothing like what the gfs op showed. not saying it can't or won't happen . just being realistic at this point. there is very little support at the moment . let's see what the 12z gefs says

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When does the gefs come out? I always just look at y'all post it and never have bothered to look it up on my own because I don't know to view it. Are these ensembles maps of the snowfall viewable by anybody, or is it something you have to have a weatherbell membership for?
 
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